Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 09/07

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) Tampa Bay Bucs/Atlanta Falcons Over 47.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

It’s a new year, new you as they say, with the first Sunday finally here, but are these teams really going to be any different from what we’ve seen recently? The past three Bucs versus Falcons games have seen 54, 66, and 57 points, with not a lot changing in my opinion for the defenses that allowed those shootouts to unfold.

The Bucs might have lost Liam Coen to the Jags and some receiving talent to injury, but Baker Mayfield still has arguably the deepest skill corps in the league. And the Falcons are stacked with talent on offense too, the question will only be how Michael Penix looks, but I see enough offense and not enough defense that will send this over the number.

NFL (1 Unit) Carolina Panthers/Jacksonville Jaguars Over 46.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

This game should feature two up and coming offenses against defenses that simply can’t hang in the NFL right now. I’m counting on the aforementioned Liam Coen to have the same kind of magic with Trevor Lawrence and deep stable of weapons as he did in Tampa last season. The Jags should be able to put up a lot of points, especially early, against a Panthers defense that was continuously torched last season.

But Jacksonville hasn’t done much to improve on defense, and if Bryce Young takes the next step, the Panthers could be in for a big season offensively. This is the timeframe when things click for quarterbacks in the Dave Canales system, and Young showed big flashes in the back end of last season. There should be a lot of throwing as both teams look to attack weaknesses in the secondaries, so expect plenty of points here.

NFL (0.75 Unit) Pittsburgh Steelers/NY Jets Under 37.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

Good old Mike Tomlin on the road, against a bad offense no less. Tomlin’s road games in his career are now 58-31 to the under, and now he faces what might be an ugly offense from the Jets side. Justin Fields lacks weapons and just lost his best lineman this week, so the Steeler defense should be ruthless here. I don’t think the Pittsburgh offense will have any explosiveness either, with a much more conservative, dink and dunk style with the aging Aaron Rodgers under center. New Jets coach Aaron Glenn should be blitzing like crazy, so I think both teams are inefficient on offense and a lot of running plays keep the clock churning.

NFL (0.5 Unit) NY Giants +6.5 @ Washington Commanders (-120; Odds via Fanduel): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

This is apparently the sharpest play on the board today. Do I love it? No. Will I tail it anyway? Seems so. The ticket and money count for this game could not get more disparate, showing public bettors loving Washington and smart money loving the Giants. I get it, Dan Quinn is historically awful in Week 1 games, plus underdogs of this size or more are 49-27 ATS in Week 1 games since 2006. The back door should be open for Russell Wilson to toss moon balls to Malik Nabers, and the Giants defense might be sneaky-elite, so side with the sharps and take the points here.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Miami Dolphins +1.5 @ Indianapolis Colts (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

Since 2008, the Colts are 2-14-1 both ATS and straight up to open the season. That is dreadful, simply dreadful, and the only quarterbacks to win them a Week 1 game in the past 20 years are named Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. The name of today’s starting quarterback is Daniel Jones, so we’re a couple tiers of QB away from the successful ones I just named.

I don’t think this Colts defense can hold up against the healthy version of Miami’s passing attack, not with Mike McDaniel having all summer to prepare. The Dolphins don’t inspire confidence defensively, but it doesn’t take much to force Danny Dimes into losing a game for his team, so I’ll take the points here.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Miami Dolphins Alt Line -6.5 (+230; Odds via Fanduel)

When the Dolphins win, they tend to win loudly. That’s especially true against outmatched opponents who they don’t take mercy on very often. Even in a down 8-9 season last year the Fish had 5 wins by more than this margin, so I’ll play the alternate market for this juicy return.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Houston Texans/LA Rams Under 43.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:25 PM CT on CBS

I have serious questions about the ability of both quarterbacks in this game to hold up under pressure, and it’s coming for both of them. You and I could get pressure on CJ Stroud with the swiss cheese offensive line he’s behind this season, which will probably be the worst in the league. The Rams have a lot of young pass rush talent that should take advantage and stymie the Houston offense here.

On the flip side though is arguably the best defense and pass rush in the league coming after Matthew Stafford. With him dealing with a back injury all summer, I can’t imagine he wants to see the Texans coming after him and that will limit LA’s production. Both teams might have to run the ball, play great defense, and hope for the best today, which keeps this one under the total.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Baltimore Ravens -1 @ Buffalo Bills (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:20 PM CT on NBC

Buffalo spent the whole summer as 1 or 1.5 point favorites in this game, until this past week when the number pushed through zero to favor the Ravens. That’s a significant indicator of where sharp money is on this game, since as soon as limits were raised all the big money came in on Baltimore. I would have to agree since the Ravens have unquestionably the best roster in football, and should be on a revenge tour. Lamar Jackson and company definitely remember their narrow and frustrating loss in Buffalo in January’s playoffs, so they’ll be on a mission. I don’t like Buffalo’s defense one bit, especially not against the run game that the Ravens can deploy, so I think the visitor gets the win here tonight.

NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.25 Unit – David Njoku Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – David Njoku Anytime TD (+260)

0.5 Unit – James Conner Over 90.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Alvin Kamara Over 4.5 Receptions (-110)

0.25 Unit – Trey McBride Over 6.5 Receptions (+105)

0.25 Unit – Malik Nabers Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Trevor Lawrence Over 240.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Bryce Young Over 213.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Brenton Strange Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Daniel Jones Over 0.5 Interceptions (-110)

0.25 Unit – Drake London Over 6.5 Receptions (+100)

0.25 Unit – Drake London Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Emeka Egbuka Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Mike Evans Anytime TD (+130)

0.25 Unit – Drake London Anytime TD (+140)

0.25 Unit – Kenneth Walker Over 80.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Lamar Jackson Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Josh Allen Over 35.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 11-16 (-3.25 Units) – Recommend: Run Away

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.