Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 09/06

Locks

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Kent St @ Texas Tech -48.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:00 AM CT on TNT

Last week’s Texas Tech demolition of Pine Bluff was predictable, as this team is in the business of making loud statements and justifying their insane NIL expenditures. Plus, they might be pretty good with all that purchased talent in Lubbock now.

The Red Raiders closed as 55 point favorites in that game, which obviously wasn’t enough against a bad FCS team, but what about an awful FBS team that probably belongs in FCS? Kent State was easily the worst FBS team of last season, hasn’t improved much, and needed a late 4th quarter kick return touchdown to escape FCS Merrimack at home.

Tech laying a touchdown less in this game feels like too much of a downgrade for them just because an FBS program is in town, and any worries about QB Behren Morton’s status have been put to rest. The Red Raiders should score whenever they touch the ball if they want to, and I think they do want to just for showmanship. With no real lookahead spot to worry about for Tech here, I think they roll and having this spread under the key number of 49 is good value.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Baylor/SMU Over 64 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 11:00 AM CT on The CW

This game between two in-state teams should come with plenty of points in a back-and-forth affair. The last time these teams met, Baylor was the dominant big conference team and put it on SMU in consecutive seasons. That’s not the case anymore with the Mustangs being an ACC member now, and fresh off a CFP berth last season. But last year’s squad was exposed defensively once they started playing competent offenses, and I think that will carry over into today.

With Kevin Jennings still at the helm though, SMU is as dangerous as ever offensively, and they should be able to exploit Baylor’s defensive weaknesses the same way Auburn did last week thanks to his dual-threat ability. And I’m reaffirming my belief in Baylor QB Sawyer Robertson who put 419 yards on an SEC defense last week, and should be able to have another big game through the air here. We’ve seen this total push through the key number of 63 across the board with no resistance, indicating sharp money expects points as well, so grab the over in this potential shootout.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Western Kentucky/Toledo Over 58 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Maverick McIvor and this new-look Western Kentucky offense is a shootout machine, but they aren’t appreciated and being priced that way yet. After their first two games have hit 65 and 61 points against weak offensive competition, another should be coming here with an opponent that should finally be able to keep up.

Toledo has an excellent and experienced QB in Tucker Gleason, who adds a rushing dimension that will help the Rockets put up points against a weak Hilltoppers defense. Toledo threw it well against a good SEC defense at Kentucky last week, and should be able to build on that tonight. But I don’t think they stop this up-tempo, pass-happy, high octane WKU offense very often, so I’m expecting much more of a shootout than the market here.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Georgia Southern/USC Over 60.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on FS1

This total is essentially identical to last week’s number for USC, which they took care of on their own in hanging 73 on Missouri State. That was an opponent who was outmatched in every phase, was going to have trouble scoring and stopping anything against USC’s talent, but still managed 13 points while getting their doors blown off. With Georgia Southern coming to LA, it’s fair to expect more of the same as the Trojans should run it up once again.

I’ll lose my voice shouting that Lincoln Riley is out to prove something with this offense led by talented but underrated transfer QB Jayden Maiava, and will keep trying to score long after the outcome is no longer in doubt. I don’t think they’ll have any trouble with that against GA Southern, especially with the ground game looking so good last week and facing an Eagles defense that got run over for 351 rushing yards by Fresno State last week. If you’re allowing that kind of production and 42 points to Fresno, this is going to get ugly in a hurry, so take the over here in what might be another case of USC doing the job themselves.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) BYU Team Total Over 32.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:15 PM CT on ESPN

Speaking of teams that seem likely to want to make statements about their offense, BYU is in a spot to do just that tonight. They get an ESPN game to continue their momentum off a 69-point outburst against Portland State last week, and while that’s an FCS school, they get one of the weakest FBS opponents possible here. Stanford has had time off since their Week 0 game in Hawaii, but I don’t think it’s a matter of making adjustments when there’s this little talent on the roster.

Giving up 23 points to Hawaii with a hobbled quarterback looks a lot worse after the Warriors were awful in Arizona, so this Cardinal defense is not good. BYU should be looking to prove a point after having to give the QB job to true freshman Bear Bachmeier since kicking Jake Retzlaff out of Provo. This Cougars offense is balanced though and should shred Stanford at will, especially once the elevation fatigue kicks in, and 5 touchdowns doesn’t seem like too big of an ask tonight.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Sam Houston St Team Total Over 21 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:00 PM CT on Mountain West Network

Speaking of Hawaii, I’m looking to fade this defense that got exposed last week. The Warriors would’ve lost to Stanford in Week 0 if they were up against any kind of competent quarterback play, which they ran into last week against Noah Fifita as Arizona put 40 on them. The jury is out on Sam Houston QB Hunter Watson, and he’s not on Fifita’s level, but he’s better than what Stanford brought to the island and also adds dynamic rushing ability. The Bearkats have managed 24 and 21 points against similarly weak defenses in their two games, so I’ll take a late-night shot on the over here as long as it’s at a flat 21 number.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Lynx/Golden State Valkyries Over 155.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:30 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North

I’ll go over the numbers one more time for anyone who’s new here. When the Lynx lose a game, their following game averages 174.0 points and is now 9-1 to the over. This game will be a serious test of that trend as the Valkyries are not messing around on defense, although they have been scoring quite a lot lately and are on a 6-4 over run.

So I have no choice but to keep on backing this trend after Minnesota was relatively uncompetitive in Vegas on Thursday night, and their defense has shown some cracks in recent games. The Lynx just know how to bounce back with a vengeance, averaging 92.5 PPG in the game following their losses and hanging at least 90 in all but one of them. Getting into the 90’s here would all but guarantee clearing this low of a total, so I’ll stick to my system play here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 11-20 (-6.35 Units) – Recommend: Run Away

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.