Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 09/05

Locks

NFL/NCAAF (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)

KC Chiefs vs LA Chargers +10: 7:00 PM CT on YouTube

I’m using a 7 point teaser here because I think getting this number to the double-digit range is key. Look, the Chiefs are going to be good again and we have to accept that, because they have Mahomes and the NFL wants them to be good. But how dominant is another question entirely, and I think that unquestioned reign is nearing its end with how much improvement their division is showing.

So to get one of those on-the-rise division rivals with this kind of cushion is great value. Underdogs in Week 1 divisional games have been very profitable throughout history, plus Jim Harbaugh is a perfect 5-0 both ATS and straight up in Week 1 for his NFL career. Remember back to last season when the Chiefs played in 11 one-score games, which seems to be their m.o. lately, so any kind of blowout here looks unlikely and I’m happy to have this many points in my pocket.

James Madison/Louisville Over 48.5: 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2

A lot of smart people will tell you never tease totals, and definitely don’t do it in college football. I’ll tell you to tease whatever the heck you want to, since it’s always advantageous to knock points off or add them to a number, especially when you can move it through key numbers. In a game like this, the key numbers are the multiples of 7 as that’s how I expect the scoring to go, and I’m moving it below the 7 touchdowns mark.

Louisville dropped 51 last week in what was actually a sloppy offensive performance, and I expect they’ll clean things up for Miller Moss this week who’s plenty capable of throwing all over JMU with an excellent receiving corps. And the Dukes had a busy day on the scoreboard themselves, and QB Alonza Barnett should be able to produce with his arm and legs tonight. In perfect weather conditions, these teams should both go up and down the field to clear this adjusted total.

Northern Illinois @ Maryland -9.5: 6:30 PM CT on BTN

My Maryland roots have me cheering for them this as always, and I think this should be an easy number for them to cover. They should just roll in general, but being able to get the spread into single digits is useful against a Northern Illinois team that will try to make this game ugly. That’s because they have serious problems at QB, and I don’t think the offense will be able to function against the Terps.

Maryland shut down an FAU team with a very good quarterback last week, so I just don’t see how the Huskies move the ball with all their issues between Josh Holst and Jackson Proctor, who barely got them past FCS Holy Cross last week. Malik Washington looks like the real deal for the Terps, and was given a ton of freedom as a true freshman, so his natural ability alone should propel Maryland to a double-digit win tonight.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) NY Liberty @ Seattle Storm -1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ION

You simply have to take advantage of the Liberty when they don’t have their Big 3 together. That seems like it will be the case tonight with Sabrina Ionescu not looking promising to suit up, but monitor her status closely. The Liberty have struggled with injuries all season to Ionescu, Breanna Stewart, and Jonquel Jones, rarely having all of them available at the same time.

They’ve faced this Seattle team twice this season, both times at less than full strength, and the results speak for themselves as the Storm won by 10 and 9 points. Seattle’s defensive issues were on display again in their last game, but a shorthanded Liberty team that has really struggled to score on this road trip doesn’t scare me as much. Seattle knows how to handle this team and will be motivated to bounce back, so if Sabrina is out I’m liking the Storm in this spot.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Eduardo Rodriguez Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-120; Odds via DraftKings): 8:40 PM CT on ARID

I love going against Eduardo Rodriguez on a normal day as he’s always prone to giving up a ton of hits. On the season he’s averaging 1.2 hits allowed per inning, so get him out there for 5 innings which he’s done in all but 2 home starts this year, and there’s your over. That’s why he’s 7-3 over this total in his home starts and 16-8 over it all his appearances. It might be quick tonight against this Red Sox club that ranks top-4 in every key offensive metric against lefties, and their lineup has tagged Rodriguez for a .328 average and 1.004 OPS in his career, so I think they have an easy time against him tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-21 (-4.0 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.