Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 09/04

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:20 PM CT on NBC

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles -2

The spread of this game is doing some bouncing around in the 7.5 to 8.5 range, so I expect it to settle on 8 but for teaser purposes just want to get to or below the key number of 3 points. Not that I think it will matter much, even as a Cowboys fan, as Philadelphia should have no trouble getting this win. Sure, the Eagles might be distracted by hanging their Super Bowl banner, but eventually and inevitably they’ll wear down this Cowboys defense through brute force.

Or maybe through precision passing, or a combination of both, whatever they choose against what I think is going to be another long year for the Dallas defense. Regardless, I just don’t see a way for the Cowboys to stay within a full possession here, and this teased number should be no problem for the champs to cover.

Dallas Cowboys/Philadelphia Eagles Over 41.5

The second leg of this teaser is another advantageous number, as I can move the total below the key number of 42, or 6 total touchdowns. Like I said above, this Dallas defense is going to really struggle this season, which was probably going to be the case even if Micah Parsons hadn’t been traded. The Eagles have too many ways to beat you both on the ground and in the air, so I think they have a big day on the scoreboard in this hyped-up home spot.

But the Cowboys should get theirs too, as Dak Prescott has looked excellent in his return from injury, and there are multiple talented receiving options to take attention away from CeeDee Lamb. The weakness of the Philly defense will be the secondary now that Darius Slay and CJ Gardner-Johnson are out of town, and the Cowboys should only be able to throw here. That creates the conditions I always look for with an over, and this adjusted number should be easy to clear.

NFL Thursday Night Football Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings): 7:20 PM CT on NBC

1 Unit – Dak Prescott Over 36.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

As I mentioned, the Dallas offense is going to be exclusively built around the passing game. Their weak defense will force them into shootouts and catch-up mode on a weekly basis, and their running back room is suspect at best. The Eagles do still have a fearsome front 7 on defense, so look for a ton of short and quick passes to negate that pressure which will drive up Dak’s attempts.

0.5 Unit – Dak Prescott Over 248.5 Passing Yards (-110)

If Prescott throws it 37-plus times, it’s pretty difficult to stay under this yardage number, especially if his game-breaking weapons in the receiving corps bust some big plays.

1 Unit – CeeDee Lamb Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

The Dak to Lamb connection cannot be oversold in my opinion, it’s one of the most dangerous in football when both are healthy. That’s the case as we start a new season, and last year in the 8 games when Dak was healthy, CeeDee averaged over 80 yards per game.

0.5 Unit – CeeDee Lamb Alt Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (+120)

Did I say over 80 yards per game? Then I might as well go up the ladder for this alt number that just asks him to get 80 or more.

0.75 Unit – DeVonta Smith Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Smith often flies under the radar as probably the 4th option in this offense, which holds his prop totals down. But word out of Eagles camp is that Smith has been a focal point of the offense going into this season, and I think he can light up the Cowboys defense with so much attention being paid to Barkley, Brown, and Hurts.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Las Vegas Aces Team Total Under 81.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on Prime Video

Oh yeah, the WNBA is still going on, thanks for getting me through the summer. What I’m seeing here is another opportunity for the Lynx to assert their dominance over the Aces, even though Vegas has gone on a 12-game winning streak since the Lynx took them to the woodshed a month ago. Maybe the Aces are a different team now and can exorcise some of the demons from that game, but Minnesota has consistently shown that their defense has the solution to the Aces offense.

The Lynx have held them to 62, 78, and 58 points in the meetings so far this season through elite field goal percentage defense, which Minnesota ranks second in the league for. This should also be a tighter, lower-scoring game in general given the heated rivalry and stakes of Minnesota going for the season sweep. Sharp money has been coming in on the Lynx so they seem like the team that will dictate this game, and I think that means another lower-scoring game out of at least the Aces.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-19 (-3.75 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.