Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 08/31

Locks

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Notre Dame/Miami Under 50.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ABC

If these teams had played last season I would’ve been all about the over, but a lot has changed for this Catholics vs Convicts matchup. No more Cam Ward for Miami is the biggest factor, as he was key in facilitating all the shootouts that the Canes found themselves in last year. New QB Carson Beck doesn’t impress me, especially against a Marcus Freeman-led defense as he’s one of the best defensive minds in the game.

And Notre Dame breaking in a true freshman at QB should mean a heavy dose of ground and pound behind Jeremiyah Love. That will be especially true if we also see adverse weather conditions which are predicted for the Miami area. And at this point of the season with top-tier teams facing off the defenses are usually ahead of the offenses, just look at yesterday's marquee matchups of OSU/Texas and LSU/Clemson which came nowhere near their respective totals. All that has me looking at the under in what should be a tightly contested game.

MLB (1 Unit) NY Mets Team Total Over 4.5 (-105; Odds via Caesars): 12:40 PM CT on Fanduel Sports FL

The inconsistency out of the Mets is not coming from the plate, and I think they keep raking today against a favorable pitching matchup. Their past 20 games have seen them average 7.3 runs while going 13-7 over this total, so the bats are hot and they’ve been doing a lot of damage to the Marlins pitchers in this series. That should continue against the road version of Sandy Alcantara, who still owns an 8.03 ERA away from home. The Mets have also worn out the Miami bullpen this weekend, so Sandy won’t have much help behind him and that should allow New York to pile up the runs once again.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 14-20 (-3.65 Units) – Recommend: Tail

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.