Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 08/28

Locks

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Buffalo Bulls +17.5 @ Minnesota Gophers (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on FS1

Sorry Gopher fans, I’m not seeing a fun, blowout win to open the season tonight. That’s not a call for the upset, although I think Buffalo will give them a whole lot more than they want in this game. Even though PJ Fleck is pretty good ATS-wise as a double-digit favorite, this is a tough situation to pull away and win by margin.

Breaking in a brand new quarterback like the Gophers are with Drake Lindsey is not a spot where the notoriously cautious Fleck will look to do anything exciting, instead opting to run Darius Taylor all night. But that will be difficult against what is probably the best Group of 5 defense in the country, with a ton of returning talent at all three levels. That’s why the total is so low in this game, and getting this many points on the good side of a key number is something I have to take.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Rutgers Team Total Over 34.5 (+100; Odds via DraftKings): 5:00 PM CT on BTN

Rutgers will enjoy a serious mismatch in favor of their offense tonight, and I think they end up running it up on Ohio as a result. The Scarlet Knights rank third in FBS for returning production on offense, and while they unfortunately lost excellent running back Kyle Monongai to the NFL, they should be able to recreate his production in the aggregate.

Last year’s backup Antwan Raymond and FAU transfer CJ Campbell are more than capable of running wild tonight behind an o-line that returns all five starters. That line is massive too, with everyone weighing in at 300-plus, and should dominate an undersized Ohio front that is made up of mostly FCS transfers.

That will make it a long night for the Bobcats, as will Greg Schiano’s tendency to run up the score in non-conference games against lower-league teams. The past four seasons, when Rutgers has hosted an FCS or Group of 5 opponent, they’ve never scored below this number while averaging 50.4 points. That big line should push Ohio around even late in the game when Rutgers is trying to run out the clock, so I see plenty of points out of the Knights tonight.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Seattle Storm/Minnesota Lynx Over 164 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North

I continue to view Seattle games as good spots to bet the over with this defense struggling, and tonight against the red-hot Lynx should be no different. The Storm used to have a great defense but it has fallen apart, allowing 84.8 PPG their past 10 games. So a Lynx team that is leading the league in scoring and shooting should have an easy time picking Seattle apart, especially with Napheesa Collier back and looking to make up for lost time in her MVP quest.

MV-Phee actually missed one of the meetings with Seattle this season and they combined for 178 points anyway, so these teams know how to put up points against each other. The Lynx also appear to be on a mission after dropping two straight games for the first time this season, hanging 95 and 97 in their next two. If they want to continue playing at that fast pace Seattle will oblige as their tempo has really ramped up, plus they’ve had trouble against the three and Minnesota is wet from deep lately. I see a game in the 170’s again here, so I’ll be on the over.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Chicago Sky @ Phoenix Mercury -11.5 (-115; Odds via BetMGM): 9:00 PM CT on Prime Video

The Mercury have been plagued by injuries to star players all season, but this fully healthy version of them is right up there with the most talented teams in the league. It doesn’t take much to dominate this Sky team that has arguably the worst defense in the league, but the full-strength Mercury should be able to destroy them. We’ve seen Phoenix with all its starters once in their three meetings with Chicago this season, and not surprisingly it was their easiest win of the three, a 107-86 beating on the road. The Sky even had Angel Reese for that game, so the disparity between these rosters at their healthiest is vast, and should be on display again tonight in another runaway.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 15-12 (+2.63 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.