Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 08/27

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Yu Darvish Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+115; Odds via DraftKings): 3:10 PM CT on ROOT Sports NW

The Seattle offense cooled off a bit in the middle of this month, but I think they’ve found their groove again. I’m seeing that continue here against the most vulnerable starter for San Diego, as Darvish definitely has some troubling signs like a 7.66 ERA on the road and a tendency to give up home runs.

A Mariners lineup that has a lot of pop and is swinging for the fences should benefit from that, especially since this is a day game with warmer temperatures and the wind blowing out of T-Mobile Park. That’s good enough for me to buy in on Seattle doing damage today, but with the Padres having an elite bullpen I want to focus on Darvish and this plus-juice return.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Milwaukee Brewers Team Total Over 4.5 (+105; Odds via Caesars): 6:40 PM CT on Fanduel Sports WI

This just keeps on cashing, so no sense in changing strategies now. Even after 7 and 9 runs the past two nights, most of which have come against the starters, there’s still plus juice available on this total and I’m sticking with it. Arizona will send out a decent starter in Ryne Nelson, but one who once again struggles on the road with a 5.01 ERA and problems with issuing free passes.

Those walks really hurt against this Brewers lineup that pounces on any mistake, and I think they can do more damage against Nelson. And through two games the Brewers have yet to really beat up on a bottom-5 bullpen, and if they get that opportunity tonight this total will be laughably too low again.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Colorado Rockies/Houston Astros Over 8 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on COLR

Don’t be so shocked that the Astros lost as massive favorites yesterday in a tough Malinsky Special situation, that’s baseball for you. But don’t be surprised if they bounce back with a vengeance today, facing a weak Colorado pitching staff that is sending out Chase Dollander tonight. The Rockies righty is far worse in Coors, but still doesn’t have the stuff to contend with this Astros lineup that is highly motivated tonight.

I’m also expecting the Rockies to produce here though, as they’ll face Framber Valdez in what might be the worst month of his career. The usually excellent lefty has a 7.33 ERA, a 1.76 WHIP, and a .341 opponent on-base average in August, and I can see that continuing here against a Rockies lineup that still tries. I see multiple game scripts that could unfold here and they all mean lots of runs, so I’ll take a shot on this lower number.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Las Vegas Aces @ Atlanta Dream -0.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on NBA TV

Why would a team that’s won 11 straight games be an underdog? Cue the Brian Windhorst meme because there’s good reason for Atlanta to be laying points here. The Dream are equally but much more quietly as hot as the Aces, taking over first place in the East and second in the WNBA overall. They also have the second-best home record in the league, one of the best cover records, and are on a 9-1 ATS run.

But this pick is mostly about revenge, as the Dream have dropped both meetings with the Aces, both of which were played in Vegas. They were shorthanded in both losses, but that didn’t stop Atlanta from holding leads of 1 and 7 points after the first quarter of those games. I think the Dream come out fired up to avenge those losses and be the ones who put an end to this 11-game winning streak. So I’ll back the team that’s great at home, fired up, and has a history of starting strong in this matchup.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-10 (+5.15 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.