Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 08/25

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) Milwaukee Brewers Team Total Over 4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:40 PM CT on Fanduel Sports WI

I’m pretty surprised by this number, considering it’s the Brewers and they’re facing who they’re facing. Even though things have cooled off for them since the win streak ended, Milwaukee should still be in a an excellent position to rack up runs tonight. They’re facing Eduardo Rodriguez, who is very up-and-down but puts the Brewers into their ideal hitting split as a lefty.

The Brewers already put up 7 runs the first time they faced Rodriguez this season, as they’re one of the best offenses in baseball against lefties, ranking 3rd in batting average, 2nd in runs scored, and 1st in weighted runs created. And after Rodriguez gets pulled they’ll face the bullpen that is 26th in collective ERA, so runs should be coming for them all game long and this total is far too low as a result.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Hunter Greene Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (+110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:10 PM CT on MLB Network

Backing pitchers against the Dodgers, especially righties who they’re built to destroy, can be scary. But Hunter Greene has scary stuff of his own, and is in the right situation to pitch fairly deep in this game. Greene spent a long two months on the IL before returning a couple weeks ago, and has gone over this outs prop in both starts. The Reds should be looking to stretch their ace out as we head into September, so I think he’ll have a fairly long leash here. He’s also done well against Dodger hitters in his career, and LA is just coming off a tough road trip culminating in a hard-fought series in San Diego, so they might not be at their sharpest. That’s good enough for me to take a shot at the plus-money return here.

WNBA (1 Unit) Las Vegas Aces/Chicago Sky Over 164.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:00 PM CT on NBA TV

The winning continues for the Aces as they’ve now rattled off 10 straight, and that shouldn’t stop here against one of the league’s worst teams. But I’m not ready to lay double digits on the road with a team that will stumble eventually, so I’ll look to the total here since it’s an angle worth playing. The Sky can’t stop anything, that’s been obvious all year as they have the 3rd-worst scoring defense in the league.

So the red-hot Aces will get theirs offensively, but Chicago is likely to come along for the ride now that Angel Reese is healthy again. The Sky averaged just 66.7 PPG during her 7-game absence this month, but went out and scored 87.7 in the three games since she’s returned, against some solid defenses as well. Anything remotely close to that level of production, in a game where the Aces are likely to put up some big numbers, will send this game flying over the total.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) A’Ja Wilson Over 25.5 Points (+105; Odds via DraftKings)

I gave out Wilson’s point prop the other day after she had gone for 30-plus in three straight, and of course she only puts up 19. And of course she goes right back with a 36-piece the next game, so maybe I’m the curse? I can’t see anyone being enough of a mush to hold her down against this awful Sky defense, and with a plus-money return here I’ll jump back in.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 15-10 (+3.86 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.