Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 08/22

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Antonio Senzatela Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 5:40 PM CT on COLR

To be clear, this game is not being played at Coors where these teams combined for 60 runs in a 3-game series early this month. But for Senzatela it doesn't really matter where he’s pitching, the runs are coming. The Rockies righty is one of the rare cases of having a higher ERA (7.04), WHIP (2.09), and opponent on-base average (.380) outside of Coors than in it.

Plus, the Pirates key hitters have a ton of success against him, and Senzatela didn’t even make it out of the first inning before allowing 8 runs to the Pirates in that previous series. Asking Pittsburgh’s offense to do much of anything is tough, but this is a very low number for such a bad pitcher and I have to jump on it.

MLB (0.5 Unit Each) Max Fried Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+110) & Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+120; Odds via DraftKings): 6:05 PM CT on NESN

Fried has not been pitching well in recent weeks, but he still gets priced by his name being Max Fried across pretty much every market. July and August have seen Fried compile a 6.80 ERA and 1.59 WHIP, both of which are troubling numbers for him. The 8 starts in that span have resulted in him going over this hits number 6 times and the earned runs number 7 times, so he’s been consistently struggling.

I think that continues against the Red Sox here, who are a top-5 offense in every way possible against lefties like Fried. They already tagged him for 6 hits and 2 earned runs back in mid-June before things went off the rails, so at very attractive prices I’ll take a shot on these props knowing that just a split turns a profit.

MLB (0.75 Unit) St Louis Cardinals/Tampa Bay Rays Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:35 PM CT on Fanduel Sports MW

Books haven’t adjusted as much to the totals for games being played at this minor league park compared to Sacramento, and this number is a good example. The temporary home for the Rays is just as small as where the Athletics play, but this time of year brings an added advantage from the weather. It’s hot and muggy in Tampa and the wind is blowing out again today, similar to yesterday when two much better starters let that game get to 11 runs.

With Miles Mikolas going for the Cardinals and Adrian Houser taking the mound for the Rays, I’m expecting more runs from these sneaky-good offenses. Mikolas has basically been batting practice on the road this year with a 6.47 ERA and .308 opponent on-base average, plus the Rays hit righties very well. And Houser has not looked good since Tampa picked him up at the deadline, and this will be his first start in the small park so I expect both offenses to jump on suspect pitching and clear this total.

MLB (0.25 Unit) Cincinnati Reds ML @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+115; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on ARID

What are the Diamondbacks doing as sizable favorites against anyone? This team just lost a series in Colorado after selling at the deadline, and have to face a Reds team tonight that is hot and motivated. Cincy is in the thick of the wild card race, and nobody is better at getting important wins in August and September than Terry Francona.

I get that Ryne Nelson has been great at home this season with a 2.20 ERA. But he’s coming off consecutive poor starts and the Reds knocked him around for 7 runs when they met in Cincinnati back in early June, plus one of the league’s worst bullpens is behind him. Zack Littell has been excellent for Cincy since they picked him up at the deadline, and is the kind of pitcher that can neutralize Arizona’s success against righties, so I have to take a shot with the better, more motivated underdog here.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Lynx/Indiana Fever Over 164.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:30 PM CT on ION

We’ve never seen the Lynx drop consecutive games this season, but I have to imagine the motivation level will be dialed even higher than usual. Betting the over after a Lynx loss has been one of the most profitable systems around the WNBA this season, with those games averaging 173.9 PPG and going 6-1 to the over. Yesterday’s loss was the first under as they faced an elite Dream defense, and I didn’t get involved due to questions around Napheesa Collier’s status.

I think tonight sets up well for a return to the standard though, as they face a weak Indiana defense with plenty of motivation on their side. The last time they saw the Fever was when they got embarrassed in the Commissioner’s Cup final, so add that to the fire of dropping two straight games this week. The Fever will be without Caitlin Clark and Sophie Cunningham, but should benefit from the Lynx being on a rare back-to-back with travel. But if Minnesota pours it on here with some positive shooting regression, this could turn into a blowout over and easily clear the total.

Degenerates

NFL Preseason Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys -2.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on NFL Network

It’s impossible most of the time to judge how motivated a team is in the preseason, but in the case of the Falcons it’s pretty obvious that they’re completely unmotivated. This team has shown over and over in the Raheem Morris era that they just want to run the ball and get the game over with, which is why he’s 0-5 in the preseason with Atlanta so far. I might be biased as a Cowboys fan, but I also know this team needs something – anything – positive to happen for them, and I think that creates the necessary effort to get a win and cover tonight.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 11-13 (-1.95 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.