Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 08/21

Locks

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Washington Mystics/Connecticut Sun Over 158 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NBCS-Boston

These teams just played on Tuesday, so the total from that game is easily copy-pasted into today. Especially given that they fell short of the number, having an ugly second half overall, a terrible game from the Mystics, and a combined 24% effort from beyond the arc. But these teams can and do score on each other fairly easily, evidenced by the other meetings this season clearing the 170-point threshold. Those totals were mostly fueled by Washington tearing up Connecticut’s awful defense, so a bounce back from tonight from their pathetic 69-point effort on Tuesday should be what’s needed to clear the total.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Chicago Sky/NY Liberty Over 163.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Prime Video

It’s very possible the Sky have the worst defense in the WNBA. They haven’t been able to stop anything the past month-plus, allowing 86.6 PPG the past 14 games as they’ve gone 1-13 in that stretch. But a lot of the beatings have come because of not having Angel Reese in the lineup, and she should be available tonight. Laugh all you want, but she’s key to this team’s offense, and they’ve been terrible on that end of the floor without her. So with the expectation that New York’s excellent offense will shred the Sky tonight, Reese’s availability should be what’s needed for Chicago to contribute enough to clear this total.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Phoenix Mercury @ Las Vegas Aces -1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on Prime Video

The Lynx better be careful, they might have woken a sleeping giant. Since Minnesota ran the Aces out of their own building by 53 points, Vegas has been on an 8-0 straight up and 6-2 ATS tear. They definitely mean business, and are playing at a high level against quality competition, so a short number like this is one that automatically become attractive. All their meetings with Phoenix have been tight games, but the two wins for the Aces came on the back of big games from A’Ja Wilson, while she sat out the lone loss. The former MVP has been going off during this win streak, and I think she carries them to another win here.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): A’Ja Wilson Over 24.5 Points (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Those two wins over Phoenix saw Wilson go for 30 and 26 points, and after dropping 30-pieces in 4 of the past 5 games, I just don’t think there’s any stopping her right now. She has cleared this total in 7 of the past 10 games overall, and in 7 of the past 8 games where she’s logged more than 30 minutes of playing time. That should need to be the case tonight against a tough Mercury squad, so expect another big night.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 12-13 (-3.7 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.