Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 08/15

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) Miami Marlins/Boston Red Sox Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on Fanduel Sports FL

When you put Sandy Alcantara on the road, I’m expecting runs and taking overs, period. His road ERA is still a massive 8.87 this season, with a .326 opponent on-base average to go with it, so there’s just no sugarcoating things. Boston has been swinging the bats well at home, as they’re a top-5 offense in basically every category at Fenway, so I think they jump all over Sandy here. But the Marlins have been hot at the plate as well, averaging 4.9 runs per game their past 15 as some quality prospects get good at-bats for them. So Lucas Giolito and a suspect Sox bullpen should give up some production, enough to clear this moderate total.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Chicago Sky Team Total Under 71.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ION

I really can’t believe this total is so high, but that’s the way it has to break down since books can’t install Golden State as a massive favorite. This disastrous 11-game stretch where the Sky have one single win has been a combination of terrible play on both ends of the floor, but I think the offense struggles more tonight. The Valkyries aren’t going to drag Chicago into a track meet, as they play slowly and rely on an elite shooting defense.

That’s going to be trouble for the Sky who have gone over this total just 4 times in those 11 games, 3 of which were due to them getting into track meets. Chicago has also had two very different results against Golden State, one game where they managed 78 points with Angel Reese and Ariel Atkins, and one without those key starters where they got to 66 points. Reese will miss tonight’s game again and Atkins is questionable, so I see nothing but bad news for Chicago’s scoring potential tonight.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) LA Sparks -4.5 @ Dallas Wings (-115; Odds via BetMGM): 6:30 PM CT on ION

Matchups for the Sparks like this one, where the opposing team can’t guard a parked car, make it easy for them to run away thanks to their high-octane offense. That’s what happened in the other meeting they had with Dallas this season, where LA dropped 93 and cruised to an easy win. There are plenty of things that have changed since that meeting though, all seemingly in LA’s favor so it’s no wonder this spread is on the rise.

Dallas had both Arike Ogunbawale and DiJonai Carrington for that game, but Carrington is in Minnesota now and Ogunbawale will be out tonight. Dallas might also be without Paige Bueckers, while LA now has Cameron Brink in the fold. And that meeting was back in early June, before the Sparks found their groove offensively and went on this insane run of 90-plus points in 10 of their past 12 games. I don’t think Dallas will be able to slow them down or keep up, so this should be a runaway for LA tonight.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Dream -2.5 vs Seattle Storm (-115; Odds via BetMGM): 9:00 PM CT on ION

This slide Seattle is on of going 1-7 both straight up and ATS has to end eventually, but I’m not seeing it here. The Storm haven’t been able to guard anyone during this stretch, and an Atlanta team with excellent but under-the-radar talent is still undervalued in my opinion. The Dream can score on anyone and defend against anyone, especially at full health which they’re getting closer and closer to. That explains their 8 wins in 9 games, and why their only loss to Seattle, by a single point, came without Rhyne Howard. This is a short price to back a team on the rise against an opponent that’s fading fast, so I can’t pass it up.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-13 (-1.7 Units) – Recommend: Fade

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.