Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 08/14

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) 2-Leg Prop Parlay (+190; Odds via DraftKings)

Tomoyuki Sugano Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-145): 12:05 PM CT on MLB Network

The trade deadline moves that Seattle made should put them over the top in this situation, and help them log enough hits against Sugano here. The Mariners have already faced the Baltimore righty this season, managing 5 hits at home in early June, but a lot has changed since then. This is now a pretty fearsome offense, one that is 3rd in hits per game on the road this season and haven’t had a ton of time with their new-look lineup yet. There are several instances already this season where Sugano has faced a team for a second time and struggled, so I think the Mariners get over this total against him.

Bryce Elder Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-140): 6:10 PM CT on SNY

The Mets might be struggling, but it’s not necessarily their offense so I think they can touch up Elder tonight. They’ve had good team success against the Braves righty, with a cumulative .292 average and .921 OPS, but it’s mainly Elder’s struggles that have me expecting this prop total to be cleared. His numbers have been getting worse all summer, with a 2.09 WHIP across his past 9 starts, going over this hits number in 8 of those games. The Mets hit very well against righties and will be looking for a bounce back after a massive collapse yesterday, so this should be an easy number for them to clear.

MLB (0.5 Unit Each) Vladimir Guerrero Jr Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105) & Ernie Clement Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130; Odds via DraftKings): 2:07 PM CT on Marquee

Total bases props have not been nice to me, but I can’t ignore the setup here. Even if I split these, a small profit will be turned, and I want to be a part of the Blue Jays bounce back game today overall. So taking these sluggers against a lefty starter is a great way to get involved, even if Matthew Boyd has been solid all year.

Guerrero and Clement just plain crush lefties, with Vladdy batting .301 with a .891 OPS, while Ernie has an incredible .345 average with a .959 OPS. Both are tearing the cover off the ball in August, part of a resurgence for Clement but business as usual for Guerrero, and I think the spot is perfect for them to cash these plus-money prices today.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks/Colorado Rockies Over 12 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:40 PM CT on FS1

I feel like we haven’t seen Coors Field totals at this level enough this season, but tonight’s is more than justified. It’s still warm in Denver with the wind blowing out, so perfect conditions exist for these offenses to wreck two terrible pitchers. We just saw this matchup over the weekend, with Bradley Blalock and Eduardo Rodriguez serving up meatballs down in Arizona for a 6-5 Rockies win, so factor in Coors Field conditions and that extra run should be easy to come by.

Blalock is preposterously bad at home with an 11.76 ERA and .387 opponent on-base average, while Rodriguez is just plain bad wherever he goes. Add in the bullpens that are two of the worst in baseball, and we might see another slugfest between two teams that already have reached 19 or more runs 3 times in their meetings this season.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 14-14 (-0.7 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.