Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 08/13

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 1:10 PM CT on MLB Network

I don’t like laying the run line with home teams. I don’t like betting on teams that have won a ton of games in a row. But someone please tell me what else to do with this Brewers team right now! Milwaukee went up against Paul Skenes yesterday and came away with a 14-0 win, I mean come on, this is ridiculous. They’re only the 10th team since the league expanded almost 60 years ago to have multiple 10-game win streaks in a season, and they don’t seem like they’re stopping today.

Not with Brandon Woodruff on the mound who absolutely owns the Pirates, as they’ve only managed a cumulative .153 average and .520 OPS against him in his career. Since returning from the IL, Woodruff has led the Brewers to wins in all 6 starts, and he should get run support again today. I don’t know how this lineup is doing it, but I see them staying hot today against Mitch Keller, as the Brewers have a cumulative .326 average against him in his career. I’m simply not stepping in front of the Milwaukee freight train, but instead buying a ticket at this flat juice return.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Golden State Valkyries/Washington Mystics Under 149 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on MNMT

It’s tough not to take the under even on such a low total when you have the best under team in the league playing. The Valkyries are now 21-10 to the under, including 8-2 in their past 10 games overall, no doubt a symptom of losing Kayla Thornton recently. Their elite shooting defense should make life difficult on the Mystics again, as they’ve held them to 74 and 67 points in the two prior meetings.

This team just held the Sparks to 59 points, so they can defend anyone, and a Washington team that consistently gets in its own way offensively should get slowed down again. Golden State isn’t going to light it up on the offensive end though, so look for another close, tightly guarded game here that falls short of the total.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) NY Liberty/Las Vegas Aces Over 170 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN

The Aces have gotten serious since the Lynx beat them by 53 points, rattling off 4 straight wins where the offense has looked better and better. I’m sure they’d love to dish out some revenge to New York since the Liberty have beaten them handily in both meetings, and this used to be *the* rivalry in the league.

I think they can do just that against a team that just played a long, fast-paced game last night in LA and now has to play on no rest. It’s a tough ask for the Liberty defense so I think they struggle on that end, but should carry over some of the hot shooting from last night. Las Vegas has had defensive issues all season, and if they’re looking to push the tired Liberty then the defense will give up plenty of points naturally, and I think that results in another over here.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Dream ML @ Seattle Storm (-105; Odds via BetMGM): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN3

Watch out for the Dream, they’re a serious contender now that all the roster pieces are healthy and in place. This team was making plenty of noise while dealing with a ton of injury issues, so now that Britney Griner and Rhyne Howard appear healthy and are contributing, this team should be a problem down the stretch.

I think they’ll be a big problem for the fast-fading Storm, who have lost 5 straight and 7 of their past 10 overall. Seattle has been really just an average team all season, and even though they have a lot of close losses, I think that means a healthy and hot Atlanta squad holds the edge. I like this moneyline price for the Dream to keep things rolling against a Seattle team that’s just 5-11 ATS at home this season.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 14-15 (-0.5 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.