Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) Detroit Tigers/Chicago White Sox Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:40 PM CT on Fanduel Sports Detroit
The Tigers are just an automatic over for me right now in any normal game where they’re not facing high level pitching. As I mentioned yesterday, their own pitching has fallen off a cliff and doesn’t seem like it will get much better tonight with Chris Paddack on the mound. Paddack was last at Rate Field in Chicago at the very start of the season, giving up 9 earned runs to this much-maligned White Sox lineup.
But Chicago has been scoring very well by their standards for over a month, and I think they’ll be dangerous again today. But the White Sox are going with some kind of bullpen game today, so a Tigers team that has been hitting well lately should be able to give Paddack run support. These teams are 5-2 over this total in the season series, and the Tigers are still the best road over team in baseball, so I think this moderate total is very much in reach.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Garret Crochet Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:10 PM CT on NESN
Through some strange fluke, Houston has had by far the fewest at-bats against lefties this season, but they’ve made the most of them. The Astros rank 7th in batting average, 5th in OPS, and 3rd in weighted on-base average against lefties like Crochet, and I think that’s underappreciated in this prop total. Also consider that Crochet has actually struggled against Houston in his career, allowing a cumulative .305 average to their roster. Crochet has allowed over this number in 4 of his past 5 road starts and 4 of the last 6 overall, so a plus-juice return here is worth a shot.
MLB (0.75 Unit) LA Dodgers -1.5 @ LA Angels (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:38 PM CT on Fanduel Sports West
The Dodgers have not run away with the division like everyone expected this season, and I think the first time they seemed truly vulnerable was when the Angels went across town and swept them in mid-May. The Dodgers got reverse run-lined in those three games too, but revenge is a dish best served cold, and should get served up starting tonight.
The Angels are in a tough situational spot here to begin with, coming back from playing in Detroit yesterday and having to play on no rest. That Malinsky Special will benefit the Dodgers, as will facing Jose Soriano who has been terrible at home with a 5.56 ERA, not to mention one of the league’s worst bullpens.
The Angels have lost by multiple runs in 10 of his 13 home starts, so fading them is good in general much less with the Dodgers visiting. Behind Yoshi Yamamoto and an offense designed to crush righties, I think the blue LA squad runs away with this one tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 19-15 (+2.9 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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