Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 08/08

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+205; Odds via Caesars)

NY Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers (-140): 7:10 PM CT on Fanduel Sports WI

This parlay is targeting two of the hottest teams in baseball, and there’s nobody more on fire than Milwaukee. It’s been an insane run of 21-4 straight up the past month for the Brewers, who even seem to be immune to facing some of the best pitchers in the game. They have an excellent starter of their own going tonight in Brandon Woodruff, who has led them to a win in all 5 of his starts since coming off the IL.

But Mets starter Kodai Senga has struggled since returning from injury, and been hit hard his past 3 starts. These are teams that really appear headed in opposite directions, so I’ll back the Brew Crew on a short price here but one that I’m not laying individually.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners (-130): 8:40 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SUN

I don’t think the Mariners are getting appropriately priced straight up in this spot and there’s value on them to win, but I’m not laying that kind of juice so I’ll use this to close the parlay. Seattle spent the week as a massive favorite in the -260 range for every game against the White Sox, so this is a precipitous drop and an overreaction to the Rays coming to town.

Tampa is decent but fully out of contention now, while the Mariners have almost caught up to Houston for the division lead. Drew Rasmussen is a tough pitcher for Tampa, but the revamped Seattle offense gives them an edge that’s not fully appreciated in this moneyline. And Luis Castillo has been brilliant at home with a 2.40 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and .202 opponent on-base average, he just needs run support and now his offense can provide it, so I think the M’s can stay hot with a win here.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) NY Liberty/Dallas Wings Under 173.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ION

This total strikes me as lazy oddsmaking, essentially just recycled from the previous two meetings that had closing totals of 174 and 176 points. It’s not doing enough to factor in the impact no Breanna Stewart has on New York’s offense, or the fact that Paige Bueckers is banged up and questionable for tonight. That’s a lot of points left on the bench, and while the Wings are notoriously fast-paced and allergic to defense, reaching this high of a total requires a lot to go right.

Dallas has been terrible from 3 against the Liberty in the two meetings, and I expect that to continue with New York stepping up their defense lately after an awful stretch on that end of the floor. But the biggest factor continues to be Stewart’s absence, which has kept the Liberty under their season scoring average in two meetings with one of the worst defensive teams in the league. I’m not seeing these things accounted for in the total, so I’ll be on the under here.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Seattle Storm/Las Vegas Aces Over 163.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ION

This is another instance where I sense lazy oddsmaking, which might just be the norm for WNBA totals since there’s such high variance. The giveaway is that these teams combine to average 162.9 PPG on the season, but this total is not taking previous meetings or current form into account. In three meetings this season these teams have averaged 167.3 points, even with an ugly outlier of 145 over two months ago. And with the Aces having some wild results lately plus the Seattle defense really struggling, we’re probably headed for more high variance here. But these are two disciplined offenses that get good shots, and Seattle has been pushing tempo lately, so I think that creates variance on the side of lots of points.

Degenerates

WNBA Washington Mystics Team Total Under 72.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ION

I like the Lynx, a lot, but I’m not sure I can even watch this game because of how un-watchable Washington makes everything. When I say I hate the Mystics, I legitimately despise them, and it’s the ugly brand of basketball they play, particularly on the offensive end. Ok, it might also be that they’ve cost me some money this summer, but I digress.

The Lynx will have to play a different brand of basketball themselves here without Napheesa Collier, and I think their excellent interior defense can shut down a Mystics team that really doesn’t even try to shoot three’s. Washington is also unquestionably the slowest-paced team in the league, so if we can avoid the Lynx pulling them upwards in a blowout scenario, the Mystics will fall short of this number.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 19-14 (+2.75 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.