Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 08/07

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Seattle Mariners Team Total Over 4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:10 PM CT on MLB Network

There’s another very low total in this game despite these teams easily cashing the over the past two nights. The Mariners have actually done it all themselves, with 8 runs both nights to clear the posted 7.5 total, and I don’t think their offense slows down today. I do worry about Chicago’s ability to contribute runs though given how good Seattle starter Logan Gilbert has been, so I’ll isolate the Mariners instead of going after the full-game total.

They’ll face Shane Smith who has significantly regressed since his All-Star selection. Smith doesn’t tend to pitch deep into games, so a decent but overworked White Sox bullpen should get victimized here as well. Seattle’s offense has clicked perfectly with their deadline acquisitions, and I’m expecting another big afternoon at the plate for them.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Atlanta Dream -10 @ Chicago Sky (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Prime Video

Grab this number quickly because it’s only going up from here. The spread for tonight was held down on the thinking that Angel Reese would return for Chicago here, but that won’t be the case so it’s already been ticking upwards. It’s also up in the air whether Britney Griner and Rhyne Howard will be back for Atlanta, and if either of them gets the go-ahead tonight this number will rocket up.

It’s just a little preposterous to see this line ever sit in the single digits since all three meetings have been double-digit wins by Atlanta. And when the Dream last came to Chicago, in a game where neither Angel Reese nor Rhyne Howard played, it was a 37-point Atlanta beatdown. The Sky may have stolen a win against a Mystics team that can’t get out of its own way on Tuesday, but this should be a return to their continuous double-digit losses so I’m laying the points.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) LA Sparks Team Total Over 92.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-Boston

The Sparks might just be an offensive juggernaut. They’ve hung triple digits in 4 of their past 5 games, and cleared this team total in 6 of their past 7 games overall. Now they get to face the defense that gives up the second-most points in the league next to themselves, one that they’ve already dropped 92 and 101 on this season, and Cameron Brink hadn’t returned yet for either of those games.

I think this team keeps making statements as they climb out of the WNBA cellar into playoff contention, especially in what should be an easy matchup for them. LA is shooting the lights out and the Sun happen to be the league’s worst field goal percentage defense, plus the Sparks are excellent at getting to the free throw line and Connecticut puts teams on the line at the second-highest rate in the league. There should be points galore in this game with the two worst defenses squaring off, but I’ll back the rocket ship offense for another big night.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Kelsey Plum Over 20.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

This is right on the season average of 20.4 PPG for LA’s leading scorer, but Connecticut’s terrible defense gives Plum the edge to get over the total. The Sun have had no answer for her in the two previous meetings as she dropped 30 and 23 points on 62.1% shooting, so expect another big game from her here.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Indiana Fever/Phoenix Mercury Over 172 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on Prime Video

These teams just went for 208 points in a game where both hit triple digits just last week, so, yeah, I’m pretty interested in the over here. That game really exemplifies how Indiana can still thrive offensively without Caitlin Clark, and they even dropped those 107 points without much from Kelsey Mitchell who has been picking up the scoring slack in Clark’s absence. And with Phoenix at full strength, their offense is extremely dangerous as well against a subpar Fever defense. This should be a fun, back-and-forth game between two teams that have shown they struggle to contain quality offenses, and that should send it over the total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 17-12 (+2.35 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.