Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 08/06

Locks

MLB (1 Unit) Baltimore Orioles/Toronto Blue Jays Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:07 PM CT on MASN2

These teams have gotten into some slugfests recently, including against each other, and I think we see another tonight given this pitching matchup. The past 8 meetings between these teams have gone 6-2 over this total while averaging 10.8 runs per game, and their combined games since the All-Star break have gone 28-5 over this total.

With Grayson Rodriguez starting for Baltimore and Chris Bassitt going for Toronto, those trends have a great chance to continue. Bassitt in particular has been shelled by the Orioles, allowing a composite .400 average and 1.083 OPS to their lineup, plus his numbers get worse in home games. Rodriguez meanwhile has worse numbers on the road, and the Jays have a composite .311 average and .970 OPS against him. With two offenses that are swinging freely right now, I think we easily get over this lower total.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Seattle Mariners First 5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 (+105; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on MLB Network

I’m once again fading Keider Montero of the Tigers here, who has been allowing runs like crazy this season. But his runs allowed prop is 2.5 with -120 juice to the over, while I’m getting a plus-juice return on Seattle to do that damage within the first 5 innings. In 6 of Montero’s 8 starts this season he has gone over that runs allowed prop, and every time it happens early. All of those games saw the opponent get over this runs prop with an average of 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings. I’m a believer that this Seattle offense has turned a corner with 6.3 runs per game since the trade deadline, so I’ll back them to get to Montero early like most teams do.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Brent Rooker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120; Odds via DraftKings): 8:40 PM CT on NBCS-CA

Rooker going 0-for-2 with a couple walks last night was disappointing, but not dissuading. I’m going right back to that well with him because I expect him to light up White Sox pitching at some point in this series, and I want to be holding a ticket when he does. Tonight’s starter for Chicago, Jonathan Cannon, struggles on the road with a 5.76 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP, and a .322 opponent on-base average, so opportunity will be there for Rooker, and I think he cashes in.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia Phillies Team Total Over 4.5 (+110; Odds via Caesars): 9:10 PM CT on NBCS-PH

Philadelphia’s struggles since the All-Star break are significant, but I think a good opportunity exists today to help get back on track. Facing Clayton Kershaw, who sadly looks like a shell of himself in this return from injury, should allow at least the Phillies offense to have a solid day. Kershaw has fairly rough overall numbers against the Philly lineup of a composite .292 average and .789 OPS allowed, not what you’d expect from the future Hall-of-Famer. And the Phillies hit lefties very well, and it’s their vastly preferred split, so if they can get to Kershaw early and a suspect Dodger bullpen later, this team total is very much within reach.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +99.5 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.