Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 08/06

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays Team Over 6.5 (-120; Odds via Caesars): 2:10 PM CT on SNET

No need to go to the alt market on this team total today with much more acceptable juice, although if you’re into going up the ladder I’m not trying to talk you out of it in this game. I’ll stick to the standard total though since it should be relatively easy for Toronto to reach after 15 and 10 runs the past two nights in Denver.

With the Rockies having allowed 55 runs in their past 5 home games, only needing 7 seems like a bargain, especially against Kyle Freeland. The Colorado lefty has been knocked around in Coors this season, giving up a 5.98 ERA, a 1.86 WHIP, and .349 opponent on-base average. Considering how the Jays crush lefties and hit so well on the road, plus more hot weather today, I think they clear this with ease.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Chicago White Sox/Seattle Mariners Over 7.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on MLB Network

This total is pretty typical for a Mariners home game, but I don’t think it’s appreciating the change in Seattle and how that will affect tonight’s game. The Mariners finally did what they needed to do at the trade deadline, bringing in powerful bats to give their lineup depth, and it’s been working with last night’s game a prime example. If this team is hitting the ball over the fence with regularity, watch out, and I think they can continue that tonight.

They’ll face Jonathan Cannon, who is a fly-ball pitcher, with a big wind blowing out of T-Mobile Park on an unusually nice night in Seattle. The Chicago righty has been rocked in his past two starts and I think that continues here against a revamped and rejuvenated Mariners offense. Don’t discount the White Sox though, as they’ve been scoring like crazy for their standards since the All-Star break, so with the conditions tonight this low total is very much in play.

MLB (0.5 Unit) San Diego Padres Alt Team Total Over 5.5 (+110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:40 PM CT on SDPA

Speaking of teams that made great moves at the deadline and created a ton of lineup depth, the Padres went all-in this time around. They went from a very top-heavy lineup to one that can rake up and down the order, which I think creates big returns in this game. Anthony DeSclafani gets the start for Arizona and he’s bad enough with a 5.56 ERA at home this season. But he’s not a true starter and will only go a few innings, leaving the rest of the game up to one the league’s worst bullpens that is 27th in cumulative ERA. This game probably sets up as an over environment in general, but I’ll isolate an elite lineup against bad pitching and look for the plus-juice return in the alt market.

WNBA (0.25 Unit) Las Vegas Aces @ Golden State Valkyries +5.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBA TV

These teams meet for the second time in three days after the Aces ran out Golden State by 24 on Sunday. That was probably to be expected, as it was a bounce back effort from Las Vegas after the Lynx gave them one of the worst beatings I’ve seen in the WNBA. Plus, the Valkyries were at the end of a long cross-country road trip and should be in a better place mentally tonight, especially as they look for some revenge of their own. The Valkyries are just one of the best ATS teams in the league, especially as a dog at 14-8, and at home with a 9-3 ATS record. That makes them worth a shot with all these points against an Aces team they’ve played very well against until the last meeting.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Aces/Valkyries Over 158 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Just a slight lean here but another that I think is worth playing. Golden State has a great shooting defense that contributes to their 10-18 over record, but have ended up in high-scoring affairs against Vegas with 3 overs. The Valkyries have averaged 91.3 PPG in the season series, and with the Aces either scoring or allowing a ton of points on a nightly basis, this low total is vulnerable in my opinion.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-11 (-1.85 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.