Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 08/05

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays Alt Team Over 7.5 (+110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:40 PM CT on SNET

After 15 runs last night, I’ll take a shot that the Blue Jays stay hot tonight. That’s made considerably easier by the hot weather in Denver with wind blowing out of Coors, perfect conditions to rack up hits and runs. The Jays have the second-best batting average in road games this season, and applying that to Coors Field conditions against the Rockies pitching staff should be a recipe for success. Colorado is either using an opener or throwing a bullpen game today, neither of which will go well against Toronto’s excellent lineup, so I’m going one rung up the ladder to get a plus price on this team total.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Lynx Team Total Over 76.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North

The injury to Napheesa Collier is so frustrating considering they were up 40-something on the Aces when it happened. But her absence now creates a potential opportunity to buy low on the Lynx offense in a sneaky spot, and with a secret weapon that might not be baked fully into the number yet.

The Lynx have scored 82 and 84 points against Seattle this season, very consistent and thanks to sizable contributions from Collier. But the Storm have not been playing their usual tough defense lately, especially not against higher-level competition that can score.

If Minnesota can carry over any of the offensive eruption that happened in Vegas over the weekend, in which Collier was only responsible for 18 of the 111 points, they’ll be able to exploit a sub-par Seattle defense. And with help from newly-acquired Di’Jonai Carrington, whose impact can’t really be accounted for by books, the offense might only slightly miss a beat and clear this discounted total.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Dallas Wings +10.5 @ NY Liberty (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:00 PM CT on NBA TV

I think the prevailing wisdom here is that the Liberty, in the middle of a slump without Breanna Stewart, will come out angry and destroy a Dallas team that can’t defend. Especially since this is a revenge game for the Wings winning the first meeting in Dallas just last week. But I don’t think it’s that simple, and if the Liberty were going to run out a team with a bad defense, they would’ve done it to Connecticut when they had back-to-back chances over the weekend.

New York just doesn’t have it when they don’t have Stewart, and they’re up against a Wings team with plenty of firepower to stay inside a big number. The Liberty need to show they can play without Stewart, and until they do, pricing like this is a little ridiculous and worth backing the dog.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Paige Bueckers Over 18.5 Points (+100; Odds via DraftKings)

This is right on the season average for Bueckers, but it’s a number she cleared last week when the Wings took down the Liberty. The fast pace of Dallas and potential for them to be playing catch-up tonight has me trusting that she can clear it again.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Washington Mystics -8 @ Chicago Sky (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on The U

When Angel Reese is out for Chicago, they’re an auto-fade, it’s really that simple. For all the hatred she gets, she’s actually very important to that team’s success, and I don’t think this number appreciates that fact enough. The Mystics, even with their completely schizophrenic offense, should be able to take advantage of her absence tonight and torch an abysmal defense.

They’re 3-0 against the Sky this season with wins by 7, 2, and 17 points, all games where Reese played and contributed significantly. Reese isn’t the only injury concern for Chicago either, so I think their run of misery where they’ve only kept 1 of their past 8 games to a single digit margin continues tonight.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Connecticut Sun/Phoenix Mercury Over 167.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-Boston

This total has been ticking up and up and up, so sharp money is seeing what I’m seeing in two teams with sneaky-bad defenses but sneaky-good offenses. Connecticut in particular fits that description, with the second-worst scoring defense in the league and ranking dead last in field goal percentage defense. But the offense has found a rhythm in the second half of the season, and they can be dangerous against teams that aren’t good defensively or don’t take them seriously.

I think Phoenix could easily get caught flatfooted in this one, especially with how their defense has been playing. They’re just back from a long road trip where the defense struggled, only looking good against the awful Sky on Sunday. This is a tough scheduling spot for them after that trip and with Indiana on deck for Thursday, so they could be discounting the Sun like most teams do. But with a fully healthy roster this Mercury squad is dangerous offensively, so if they get it going we should see plenty of points here.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Indiana Fever/LA Sparks Over 178 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on CBSSN

This total is sky high, actually kind of ridiculous for a WNBA game, but what else can you do except take the over? I suspect this game is set to be played in the 90’s, with at least one team likely to drop triple digits tonight, which the Fever did last week and the Sparks have been doing pretty regularly.

The number is telling you something here, as the prior two meetings had considerably lower closing totals, didn’t reach this total, and there was no Caitlin Clark for either game. Clark remains out tonight, yet this total is preposterously high, expecting both teams to continue their runs of success, and I think they do enough to get there in a fun game.

Bonus Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)

0.25 Unit – Kelsey Plum Over 18.5 Points (-110)

0.25 Unit – Kelsey Mitchell Over 20.5 Points (-110)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 12-12 (-0.75 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.