Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 08/04

Locks

MLB (0.25 Unit) Minnesota Twins +0.5 First Five Innings (-105; Odds via Fanduel): 5:45 PM CT on Fanduel Sports Detroit

This pick should in no way be interpreted as supporting the Twins or letting them off the hook for their fire sale last week. All I’m truly looking at here is the Tigers and their situational spot which does not set up favorably. From a historical perspective, the loser of Sunday Night Baseball who has to then travel and play the next day does not get off to a great start, and that’s what the Tigers face for this game.

They’ll start Casey Mize who has done well against the Twins, but has struggled with a 6.32 ERA the past month. Minnesota has not announced a starter yet for this game, presumably because there are so many new faces in the clubhouse Rocco doesn’t know anyone’s name, but I’ll take a shot that Detroit isn’t sharp right away in this game and I maybe escape with it tied up at 0-0 after 5 innings.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 @ Atlanta Braves (+115; Odds via Caesars): 6:15 PM CT on Fanduel Sports South

Milwaukee was priced far too short in this game considering arguably their best pitcher is facing a struggling Braves team with a bad starter going. Atlanta has fully given up on the season, which is highlighted by them acquiring Erik Fedde and giving him starts. Fedde has gotten rocked for a 12.09 ERA and 2.29 WHIP across his past 6 starts, plus he already owns an 8.18 ERA and .311 on-base average allowed to Milwaukee in 2 meetings this season.

A hot-hitting Brewers team should give Fedde another rough outing today, while Quinn Priester puts the clamps on a Braves lineup that continues to disappoint. Backing Milwaukee when Priester takes the mound has been about as profitable as it gets, with 11 straight wins in his starts and 8 of those by multiple runs. The Brewers are rolling and have only improved their league-leading run line record in road games, so I’ll back them here for a plus-juice return.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Nick Lodolo Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:05 PM CT on Marquee

Lodolo is in a kind of strange spot to properly handicap, but I think this angle is worth playing, especially at a plus-juice return. Lodolo is actually much better on the road this season, including a very solid start in his last visit to Wrigley where he scattered 5 hits over 6 scoreless innings. But that was the second of consecutive starts against the Cubs, and the pitcher typically gets the best of those situations.

So I’d consider 5 hits to be the floor here against a Cubs team that is a top-10 offense against lefties, and has plenty of cumulative success against Lodolo. They’ve managed a .322 average and .935 OPS against the Cincy lefty, and always seem to rack up a lot of hits against opposing starters. With a plus-juice price on this prop, I’m feeling pretty confident that it’s worth a shot to back one of the league's best offenses this way.

MLB (0.5 Unit) NY Yankees/Texas Rangers First Five Innings Under 4 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:05 PM CT on YES

Help is on the way for the Yankees after getting swept out of Miami, as Aaron Judge is set to return from the IL. But that’s not until tomorrow, and for today their offense is going to have to operate without him, which means they’ll need to lean on the pitching staff. Max Fried is a good one to lean on, and he should hold down a Rangers team that has the second-worst batting average against lefties, and are bottom-5 in OPS and weighted metrics as well.

But the Yankees are not the same against lefties without Judge in the lineup, so while their season-long numbers say they crush southpaws, Patrick Corbin should have more success than usual today. It’s scary asking Corbin to do anything well given his history, but he’s been solid at home for the Rangers this year. And that home is where scoring goes to die, as Texas home games still have the best under record and lowest plus/minus to the total in the league. I see two questionable offenses facing challenging pitching matchups, and that should result in a low-scoring start.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 12-13 (-1.84 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.