Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 08/03

Locks

WNBA (1 Unit) Atlanta Dream Team Total Over 81.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on ESPN3

The Dream have been pretty shorthanded lately, with several key players going in and out of the lineup due to injuries. They haven’t been playing like it though, still averaging 85.1 points per game over their past 7 outings. They should get reinforcements for this game though, as both Britney Griner and Rhyne Howard are expected to return to action. They’ve been key pieces in Atlanta’s three games against the Mystics this season, where the Dream have gone over this total each time with 90.3 points on average. Atlanta’s extremely consistent outputs in those games, win or lose, has me expecting more of the same in this one.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Allisha Gray Over 18.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Gray is admittedly not very consistent in her scoring, which makes it difficult to back a points prop in general. But the Mystics cannot stop her, as she’s dropped 25, 32, and 18 points in the three meetings this season. And as I mentioned above, the Dream have been at full strength for those games so this should be the normal environment for her, and I expect another big game from the All-Star.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Indiana Fever @ Seattle Storm -1 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on ABC

I have to play the narrative here, and in reality it’s actually two converging narratives that favor Seattle early on today. I think the Storm come out with their hair on fire, upset about officiating that probably cost them in a double-OT loss Friday night. Seattle was in control of that game until a fourth-quarter collapse so their problems are not in first halves, but it was also a difficult situational spot for them after a long east coast road trip.

Seattle is also looking for revenge on the Fever after losing at home in the previous meeting, and will get to face them without Caitlin Clark this time. Indiana has been good without Clark, and Seattle is admittedly not a great first half team at home, but they’re very talented and likely angry, so I’ll back them on this short first half number in a motivated spot.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Phoenix Mercury/Chicago Sky Over 165.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on The U

This total has actually come down a few points from the open, which I don’t understand but I’ll gladly take the discount. It could be an overreaction to the last game for both teams on Friday, when the Mercury couldn’t shoot in Atlanta and the shorthanded Sky were smothered by a good Valkyries defense. Things should go back to normal tonight, especially with the Sky getting key players back, and for Chicago that usually means not being able to stop anything.

The Sky had allowed 86 or more points in 6 straight games before the slow-paced Valkyries turned Friday’s game into a slog, but I don’t see the Mercury doing that. They’ll be in a bad mood after getting blown out, and it’s easy to take out your frustrations on this Sky team. Phoenix is finally at full strength again, which they were when they dropped 107 on Chicago in their last meeting. The two meetings this season have hit 183 and 193 points, and with Phoenix looking to stomp someone, this could be another blowout-over situation.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 12-14 (-2.54 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.