Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 08/01

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 @ Washington Nationals (+110; Odds via BetMGM): 5:45 PM CT on Apple TV+

The Brewers were pretty quiet at the trade deadline, because they’re already really good. What they’re particularly good at is covering the run line on the road, with an MLB-best 35-17 ATS record away from home. Washington has been what they were expected to be this season, but at home they’ve taken some beatings, owning the second-worst average margin of victory in home games.

I think that continues tonight, especially with this pitching matchup. Jose Quintana has been great for the Brewers on the road, and has a good amount of experience against this Nationals roster, posting a .188 average and .602 OPS allowed to them in his career. Meanwhile, Mitchell Parker will have to face a top-10 offense against lefties that already beat him up for 7 earned runs just 3 weeks ago. August is here so it’s time for the bad teams to fade down the stretch while contenders like Milwaukee rise, and that should result in an easy Brewers win.

MLB (0.25 Unit) Ty France Alt Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120; Odds via DraftKings): 6:07 PM CT on Fanduel Sports KC

Farewell Ty France, we hardly knew ye. The Twins shipped him off to Toronto yesterday as part of their transition to a Spirit Halloween store, and I’d have to think France will be happy to play for a contender. He should also be happy to face Michael Wacha in his first game as a Blue Jay, since he’s crushed Wacha for a .480 average and 1.280 OPS in his career. I can’t imagine anything more Minnesota Twins than watching a player they gave up on quickly shine right away with their new team, so I’ll take a shot at this plus-juice price.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Golden State Valkyries -5.5 @ Chicago Sky (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ION

The Sky just haven’t been competitive lately as Angel Reese, Ariel Atkins, Hailey van Lith and others have gone in and out of the lineup due to injuries. That’s the story for them again tonight with at least Reese set to miss this game, and I think it results in another blowout. Since their surprise upset of the Lynx a few weeks ago, Chicago has gone 0-6 in the following games both straight up and ATS, with an average loss by 23.8 points.

That’s the resume of a team that isn’t trying, but one thing you can always say about the Valkyries is they’ll put forth a full effort. They should also find success tonight with their three-point volume that leads the league facing a Chicago defense that’s the league’s worst in defending the three. With Golden State narrowly clinging to a playoff spot at the moment, they need wins like this against vulnerable teams, so I expect them to run away with this one.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Indiana Fever/Dallas Wings Over 174 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ION

It’s becoming more and more apparent that Indiana can score exceptionally well without Caitlin Clark, highlighted by their 7-3 over record the past 10 games and dropping 107 on Wednesday night. Books haven’t appreciated that fact but the market has, pushing this total up 7 points from the open, but I still think it’s very playable at this level. That’s mostly because neither of these teams will play much defense, but they will push the pace and shoot it well.

They’ve done that in both meetings this season, one with Clark playing and one without. This total didn’t stand a chance in either game though as they went for 180 and 185 points. Dallas should get some help tonight from players who missed those games returning from injury to help attack an Indiana defense that has given up 98-plus in 3 of their past 5 games. Don’t let the steam or Clark’s absence scare you here, as I see this being a shootout from start to finish.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) LA Sparks/Seattle Storm Over 168 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ION

I think both teams will be able to score at will here, especially the Storm against this atrocious LA defense. Seattle already torched them for 98 in the previous meeting this season, a game that fell short of this total because of how shorthanded the Sparks were. But they’ll have Kelsey Plum back for this one, and it’s also the second game back for Cameron Brink, so LA will be vastly improved on the offensive end.

I think that returns them to the high-scoring ways we saw for most of July, but their poor defense isn’t changing any time soon and will be a major factor in sending this over the total. It’s what has made the Sparks the league’s best over team at 17-8-1 this season, and they pull all their opponents along with them into high-scoring affairs so tonight should be no different.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Kelsey Plum Over 18.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Plum has been very consistent lately, averaging 19.5 points per game in July while going 6-2 over this total. LA will need her to have a big game here, and the presence of Cameron Brink helps take a lot of defensive attention away from her, so I think she has another solid game tonight.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Nneka Ogwumike Alt Over 19.5 Points (+170; Odds via DraftKings)

Seattle’s leading scorer should be in for another big game against her former team here. Ogwumike has faced the Sparks 5 times since joining Seattle, averaging 22.8 points while going over this alternate total 4 times. Her standard points prop is juiced too heavily and doesn’t appreciate the motivation factor enough, so I like the juicy return on this ladder play.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 11-13 (-1.67 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.