Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 07/30

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Yu Darvish Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+110; Odds via DraftKings): 3:10 PM CT on MLB Network

A lot of the pricing on this prop has to do with name recognition for Darvish, but it shouldn’t. Until he proves otherwise, he’s a fade candidate any time he takes the mound, and a plus-juice return in this instance can’t be ignored. Darvish hasn’t gone very deep into his starts since coming off the IL, but has still managed to allow 2, 4, 3, and 8 earned runs in those appearances. I think the Mets can get to him today in this current form, even though they’re just an average team against righties when it comes to scoring and batting average. But their deeper stats like OPS and weighted metrics show top-tier offensive potential, and I think they cash in.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Texas Rangers -0.5 First Five Innings @ LA Angels (+105; Odds via Caesars): 8:38 PM CT on RSN

The Rangers have hit a bump since leaving Texas where they’re so dominant, but this game sets up as a good opportunity to get on track. At least early in the game when Texas will have a massive advantage over the Angels on the mound, as Nathan Eovaldi gets another start. The Ranger righty has allowed one run this month, posting an insane 0.38 ERA and 0.89 WHIP across 4 starts.

He’s just picking up where he left off after spending most of June on the IL, and should hold down the Angels again just like he did in his last visit to LA. The Texas bats should also get out to a good start against Jose Soriano, who’s been hit hard by the Rangers in both starts against them this season and has a 5.37 ERA at home. The Rangers are the superior team here with the enormous pitching advantage, so I’m jumping on this plus-juice return.

WNBA (1 Unit) NY Liberty/Minnesota Lynx Over 166 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN

A Lynx loss is a rarity, with only 6 of them altogether this season including the Commissioner’s Cup disaster. Now they’ve finally lost a regular season home game for the first time, and if the other instances are any indication, they’ll be raring to go tonight.

I simply can’t fight the trend of them bouncing back with a vengeance and sending every game following a loss well over the total. Those 5 games have gone 5-0 to the over, 5-0 over this particular total, and have crushed the number by 11.5 points on average.

Now, with the added motivation of atoning for their first home loss, plus getting to finally face the team that they feel won a title they were cheated out of, we might see the superhuman form of the Lynx tonight. They’re catching New York at a time when the Liberty defense is struggling, but might get Breanna Stewart back tonight to help with scoring. So while it’s tough to handicap human emotion, this game is as good an example as any of how to spot motivation and apply it to the number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-14 (-0.74 Units) – Recommend: Fade

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.