Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 07/29

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Detroit Tigers Team Total Over 4.5 (-105; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on ARID

I feel like it’s still a good time to buy low on the Tigers offense, which went through a horrid stretch out of the All-Star break. After averaging 1.8 runs per game for the first 9 games after the break, they’ve now scored 10 and 5 in a couple of games against poor pitching, which they’ll see again tonight. Brandon Pfaadt has always struggled on the road this season with a 5.94 ERA, and opponents in his road starts have averaged 5.3 runs per game. It’s not a great bullpen behind him either with Arizona ranked 26th in bullpen ERA, so I’m buying low on Detroit and expecting them to keep experiencing positive regression.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Miami Marlins @ St Louis Cardinals -0.5 First Five Innings (-105; Odds via BetMGM): 6:45 PM CT on Fanduel Sports FL

These teams are trending in opposite directions, which is wild to say given their respective starts this season. But numbers have to mean something, and there are glaringly obvious ones staring me in the face for this game. The most important of those being Sandy Alcantara getting another road start, and he’s now sporting a 10.06 ERA, a 1.94 WHIP, and .338 opponent on-base average on the road.

The Cardinals have to take advantage of that right away in this game, especially with their clear top starter going. Sonny Gray will look to keep their home success rolling when he starts, as St Louis is 12-1 in his home starts including 9-4 against the F5 run line. This kind of price to see those trends continue is too good to pass up.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Golden State Valkyries @ Atlanta Dream -7.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:30 PM CT on Peachtree TV

This might be the end for a scrappy Valkyries team that made plenty of valiant efforts throughout their inaugural season. Losing Kayla Thornton for the year is a huge blow, and while they toughed out a win in their first game without their best player, they lost by 31 to the worst team in the league on Sunday. And now tonight they might be without Monique Billings, so things get really thin for a team already lacking star power.

Thornton and Billings combined for 34 points in a 90-81 loss in Atlanta the first time these teams met up, and this spread is only half a point wider than it was for that game. Atlanta has been playing extremely well considering the absence of Rhyne Howard, and should look to build off an impressive road trip by stomping the shorthanded Valkyries tonight.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Las Vegas Aces/LA Sparks Over 174.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 9:00 PM CT on NBA TV

This total has rocketed up about 5 points from the open as smart money recognizes what’s coming tonight. I can’t believe it isn’t still steaming upward, since these WNBA total moves typically signal a rocking chair over. These two squads definitely justify it, as they’ve combined for 177 and 186 points in the other meetings this season.

And they’ve both gone nuclear lately, with the Sparks dropping 101 in both of their last two games, while the Aces have both scored and allowed triple digits in their past two games. The Sparks are really playing some amazing, fast-paced offense, moving up to third in the league for scoring thanks to 92.0 PPG in July. Neither team can stop anything, so expect this game to go up and down the court all night to cash the over.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 15-11 (+2.71 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.