Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 07/28

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays/Baltimore Orioles Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:35 PM CT on MASN

There is a ton of run-scoring potential in this game, and I think the matchup will bring that out of both teams. Both the Orioles and Blue Jays have too much talent on offense to not get into slugfests fairly often, and that’s what has happened in the season series with 10.7 average runs in the 6 meetings. Toronto is also the 3rd-best team to the over on the year, and Baltimore is profitable to the over at home.

Chris Bassitt starting for Toronto gives the Orioles a chance to keep beating up on weak pitching after bingeing Rockies pitching all weekend. Bassitt has a 5.66 ERA on the road, and the Orioles have good success against them as a group. I think the Jays can really get after Zach Eflin though, who has struggled at home, so in good hitting conditions I think both offenses have a big day.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Ryan O’Hearn Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125; Odds via DraftKings)

The best bat Baltimore has against Bassitt is O’Hearn, who has compiled a .538 average and 1.446 OPS against the Jays righty. O’Hearn is a little ignored in the bases market with a lot of bigger names, so he slips down the board to this better pricing, and I’m taking advantage of this juicy return.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Texas Rangers First 5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:38 PM CT on RSN

You have to feel bad for Jack Kochanowicz who returns from the IL to start for the Angels tonight. His last start came against Texas, getting yanked in the third inning after giving up 8 runs, and has to go right back to facing them tonight. That was not an outlier start for Kochanowicz, who gave up 4 runs to them in his other meeting earlier this season. He also has a 6.65 ERA and .329 opponent on-base average allowed at home, so a Rangers team that is heating up at the plate should capitalize. I’m looking to this F5 total as opposed to full game or a prop because of juice, and I think Texas scores early and often again.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Seattle Storm @ Connecticut Sun +12.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN3

I like targeting this Seattle team when they’re laying large numbers, as I just don’t think their style is conducive to blowing a lot of teams out. They haven’t been able to meet expectations when playing this bad Sun team, going 0-3 ATS in the season series so far, and losing straight up in the one meeting at Connecticut. I think this Sun squad is gaining confidence, especially after their biggest win of the season yesterday. This spread is a big valuation change compared to the other three meetings, but the style of game favors the dog here, so I’ll take the big number of points.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) NY Liberty Team Total Over 89.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN

The Liberty losing at home to an awful defensive team while also losing Breanna Stewart to injury cannot be sitting well with them. Tonight offers another awful defensive opponent in the Wings, who are shorthanded themselves and just gave up 106 to the Aces yesterday. Getting run up and down the court, while missing key players, is going to tire out what’s left of the Dallas roster for tonight and leave them vulnerable to an angry Liberty team. There isn’t much wrong with the NY offense aside from not having Stewie tonight, but a red-hot Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones should be enough to run up the score against reserves who don’t play defense anyway.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 15-9 (+4.8 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.