Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 07/24

Locks

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Connecticut Sun Team Total Over 81.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NBCS-Boston

The total in this game has skyrocketed, and why not when you have the two worst defenses in the league facing off. But when I see a game like this, where not much defense will be involved, I often like to attack the lowest number available, which means targeting the Sun specifically. It’s a much lower number that’s easier to reach because of them being 6 point underdogs, which is a big move up from the previous meeting, but one I think they can reach nonetheless.

The Sparks just don’t care on defense, especially down low where Connecticut typically attacks since they’re a low-volume three-point shooting team. Even though they’re the worst team in the league, the Sun took some positive momentum into the All-Star break, especially on offense, so look for them to clear this isolated total in a high-scoring affair.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Las Vegas Aces/Indiana Fever Over 163.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:00 PM CT on Prime Video

Caitlin Clark will miss another game tonight, but I’m getting more and more convinced that it doesn’t matter where the totals are concerned. At least not against totals that are discounted on the news that Clark is out, and smart money would seem to agree as this number has pushed up a little bit. Clark wasn’t scoring anywhere near the level you’d expect in recent games anyway, but the Fever are still having success offensively while also allowing a ton of points.

I think the Aces can take full advantage of that, as they might be turning the corner as a team. This has not been the Aces of old, as they needed a 3-game winning streak to climb over .500 on the year. But that streak has shown an offense that has been absent most of the year, and I think they can keep that going against this bad defense. Indiana scored 81 in both meetings with the Aces this season, once without Clark, so if they can repeat that while Vegas keeps improving, this game will clear the total.

WNBA (0.25 Unit) Seattle Storm Team Total Under 83.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on The U

The Storm might blow out Chicago in this game as the Sky are looking like they’ll be very shorthanded. But they can do that without scoring a ton of points, which hasn’t been something they’ve done much lately anyway. Seattle’s offense has been in a funk, going under this total in 8 straight games while averaging 72.1 PPG. They’re a much more defensive-oriented and slow-paced team in general, plus Chicago has a tendency to turn games into an absolute slog despite their poor defense. The total for this game has been plummeting, and in a similar way to the Sun total above, I want to attack the highest number on the board in what I see as an under environment.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 15-10 (+3.33 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.