Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 07/23

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Chris Paddack Over 3.5 Earned Runs (+115; Odds via DraftKings): 3:10 PM CT on MLB Network

The Dodgers were in a serious slump because both the power went out for their offense, and their pitching turned incredibly poor for a couple of weeks. The pitching is not fixed, and won’t be fixed anytime soon, but all the signs are there that the offense is back on track. LA has put up 24 runs in their past 4 games, and now welcome a struggling righty which they’re built to destroy. Paddack has been about as bad as it gets for the Twins with an 8.55 ERA and 1.73 WHIP across his past 7 starts, also struggling to keep the ball in the ballpark. The Dodgers will no doubt be looking to avenge last night’s loss, so I think they jump on Paddack early and extend his struggles.

MLB (0.5 Unit) KC Royals/Chicago Cubs Over 10.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:20 PM CT on Marquee

It’s a day game at Wrigley with hot temperatures and a strong wind blowing out, that’s really all you need to know to blindly take a shot on the over here. There are actually two decent starting pitchers taking the mound today in Seth Lugo and Colin Rea, but I’m not sure there are any pitchers who are truly immune to perfect hitting conditions at Wrigley. This kind of weather situation has bitten far better pitchers than them this season, so throw stats and matchups out the window, just let the fly balls carry.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Baltimore Orioles/Cleveland Guardians Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on CLEG

I don’t know why these teams have been playing to such low totals consistently in every meeting this season. Neither has a positive record to the over on the year, so there’s that, but they have plenty of offensive potential which has been on display in the 5 meetings that have averaged 10.2 runs. With two starting pitchers experiencing plenty of struggles going tonight, I think we see a continuation of that trend.

The Orioles will activate Zach Eflin from the IL tonight, and he’s been awful on the road with a 6.25 ERA. That should also mean a shortened start, so a Baltimore bullpen that has fallen to 25th in ERA should get beaten up again. But the Orioles still have a ton of pop in their lineup to take advantage of Slade Cecconi and his 5.40 ERA at home. Both teams are in their preferred hitting splits here and the Guardians are on the rise offensively, so look for plenty more runs tonight.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Jasson Dominguez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135; Odds via DraftKings): 6:07 PM CT on Prime Video

Dominguez has been in a little bit of a slump, going hitless in his past 4 games, so this should be a great opportunity to break out of it. Dominguez has a small sample size against Toronto starter Chris Bassitt, but it’s an incredible sample of going 5-for-6 with a double and triple. That works out to a .833 average and 2.167 OPS, and considering he’s batting .379 with a .937 OPS against Blue Jays pitching overall this season, I think this price makes it worthwhile to back him tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-11 (+3.8 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.