Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 07/22

Locks

MLB (1 Unit) Eduardo Rodriguez Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+125; Odds via DraftKings): 8:40 PM CT on SCHN

I’ve been looking to fade Rodriguez in the hits market at every chance I get, and I can't believe books are offering this juicy return. The Arizona lefty has gone over this number in 5 of his past 7 starts, with the two outliers coming against the awful Marlins and White Sox offenses. Houston should be able to jump all over him for plenty of hits, as they take advantage of their opportunities against lefties. The Astros don’t see a lot of southpaws, with the fewest plate appearances in the league, but they capitalize with the second-highest batting average and best wOBA, so they should rack up the hits here.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Indiana Fever/NY Liberty Over 163 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN

This number is held down by the news that Caitlin Clark will miss at least one more game tonight, but I honestly don’t think that matters at all. First off, Clark has been anything but a help to the Fever lately, only cracking 15 points once in her past 7 games played. Indiana has proven they can still score without her going nuclear, averaging 83.5 PPG in their past 10 games overall.

While Clark was an important scoring factor in two games against New York this season, the most recent meeting hit 175 points without her in the game. Indiana’s defense is still a liability, and the Liberty know how to score against them with 90, 88, and 98 points in the three meetings. The Liberty will also get reinforcements with Jonquel Jones finally back tonight which has been a massive hole in their offense, so look for plenty of points in this game to clear a discounted total.

WNBA (0.25 Unit) Dallas Wings +9.5 @ Seattle Storm (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN3

This is kind of a gut pick in reaction to a number that seems a little outsized. I just don’t think the Storm play a style that is effective in taking advantage of the bad Dallas defense, and they haven’t demonstrated it in either meeting this season. Seattle managed single-digit wins in both of those games, but didn’t erupt offensively like most teams do against the league’s third-worst defense. Seattle is not a volume three-point shooting team, so they aren’t as able to exploit the Wings having the worst perimeter defense in the league. Seattle also does not play the role of favorite well, just 6-10 ATS when laying points this season, so I’ll take the big number here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-13 (+0.4 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.