Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 07/21

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) Walker Buehler Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+115; Odds via DraftKings): 5:45 PM CT on NBCS-PH

Walker Buehler’s fall from grace has been abrupt, and it’s been really bad in road games this season. There aren’t many pitchers in the big leagues with worse than an 8.66 ERA, a 2.04 WHIP, and .342 on-base average allowed in road games. But Buehler keeps getting starts, although his leash is getting shorter which I think contributes to this number not being higher or juiced to the other side.

Regardless, I’m looking to the over here since he’s gone over this total in 6 of 8 road starts, and faces a Phillies team with the league’s second-best home batting average. Philly needs a bounce back from a disappointing weekend series, so look for them to punish Buehler and take advantage of his road awfulness.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115; Odds via DraftKings): 6:10 PM CT on Fanduel Sports West

The hitting and pitching splits in this matchup don’t make a lot of sense, but I’m rolling with it. Nimmo will face Tyler Anderson tonight, a lefty, who he has owned in his career for a .533 average and 1.296 OPS. That’s counterintuitive since Nimmo also bats lefthanded, but it gets even stranger when you factor in that Anderson is far worse in lefty-on-lefty matchups this season, allowing a .322 average and 1.009 OPS. Anderson is also much worse on the road this season, so whatever, I’m not going to argue with the numbers.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Chicago White Sox/Tampa Bay Rays Over 9 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 6:35 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SUN

I think this total is undervalued based on the White Sox being involved, since the perception of them is a bad offense and their season-long numbers certainly bear that out. But they just spent the weekend crushing below-average pitching in Pittsburgh, and they’ll see more of it tonight with Shane Baz taking the mound. Baz is prone to home struggles in the minor league park here, posting a 5.47 ERA compared to 2.91 on the road.

And the Rays should get plenty of opportunities to cash in runs against righty Sean Burke tonight. Tampa leads baseball in batting average against righthanded pitching, and Burke’s biggest struggles come on the road where he has a 5.18 ERA. There’s also very favorable hitting conditions tonight, as high humidity and a solid wind blowing out of the small park will help the ball jump, so I expect these teams to clear this total fairly easily.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 12-13 (-0.3 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.