Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 07/19

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Twins/Colorado Rockies Over 11.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on COLR

The Twins experienced last night what a lot of teams experience in their first game of a series at Coors. It can take some time to get acclimated to the elevation, but the next game is often when offenses will break out. That will be made a lot easier by getting to face Antonio Senzatela, one of the most combustible starters in all of baseball.

The Twins should jump on his 6.75 ERA at home, and then the awful Colorado bullpen once he exits, especially on a hot day at Coors with favorable wind conditions. But the Rockies have actually been hitting well lately, especially at home where their team batting average jumps 47 points. So rookie Zebby Matthews might have a rough introduction to pitching in these conditions, and I think it all combines to get over this big number.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Byron Buxton Over 2.5 Total Bases (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

This is kind of unreal, seeing 2.5 total bases for Buck at standard juice, even if it is at Coors. It’s the same number as last night when I was hesitant to back him since there’s no telling how the Home Run Derby impacts hitters. Well, 6 total bases including a home run later, Buck proved that he’s just that good right now. He’s 1-for-3 in his career against Senzatela with a triple, and getting to face bad pitching at elevation being as locked in as he is should seem him clear this justifiably high prop.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Cleveland Guardians Team Total Over 4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on CLEG

The Guardians seem undervalued to me, at least with respect to their offense. They were about as putrid as it gets at the plate for weeks before the All-Star break, but actually headed into the break on a tear. Averaging 5.9 runs per game once they turned it around was validated last night in the first game out of the break by hanging 8 on the Athletics, and I think there’s plenty of reason to believe it will keep up here.

Cleveland gets to face Luis Severino, and it appears as though the wheels have simply fallen off for the A’s righty. He’s given up 5 or more runs by himself in his past 4 starts, and in 6 of his past 8 overall. Opposing teams have gone 15-5 over this particular team total on the year when he starts, averaging 6.7 runs. The Guardians are much better against righties like Severino, and I expect them to keep the positive regression going and get over this team total.

NBA Summer League (0.25 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Houston Rockets Over 183.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:30 PM CT on NBA TV

Very disappointing that the Wolves missed out on the Summer League playoff due to tiebreakers with the 5 other 4-0 teams. I figured they would respond by taking out their frustrations on whatever bad team they met in the consolation round, but they’re only laying 3.5 points to Houston here. That signals they’re resting some key players and letting this turn into a pick-up game, which should mean a lot of points.

The Rockets haven’t been able to stop anything in Vegas, allowing 99.8 PPG in regulation, and probably won’t do much better against the Wolves bench. Minnesota letting the scrubs get some run today means their defense that was tough throughout Summer League will take a big step back, so look for a free-flowing game that gets over the total today.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-16 (-1.75 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.