Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 07/17

Locks

NBA Summer League (0.25 Unit) Detroit Pistons -4.5 vs Miami Heat (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on NBA TV

The Pistons were cruising for two games, issuing beatdowns to the Knicks and Rockets, but then ran into the Timberwolves buzzsaw. I still think they’re a good team, and actually gave the Wolves a lot more than they wanted, so they should be able to bounce back here. This line steamed up heavily from the open of Detroit as a short favorite, which I think is deserved against a Heat squad that hasn’t shown any consistency so far. At under the key basketball number of 5 points, I’ll lay it with what I think is a sneaky-good Pistons team.

NBA Summer League (0.25 Unit) Indiana Pacers/NY Knicks Over 189.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:30 PM CT on ESPN2

These teams haven’t played one bit of defense between them in three games each, so don’t expect them to start now. Not with both squads fully out of contention in this event, which should create more of a pick-up game environment. The Pacers have let every opponent score in triple digits so far, averaging 111 points allowed, which is wild in 10-minute quarters. The Knicks haven’t been a whole lot better, allowing 97 points per game, so in the style of game I see coming here there should be plenty of points put up.

NBA Summer League (0.25 Unit) San Antonio Spurs +2.5 vs Charlotte Hornets (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

In an interesting scheduling quirk, these teams have played the exact same opponents through their three games in Vegas. That gives a lot of data points that you don’t often find for this event, and what I’m seeing is the Spurs clearly handled that schedule better than the Hornets did, playing much better defense as well. San Antonio is also just a better organization with better coaching, and they have a dynamic star on their roster in Dylan Harper, while Charlotte lacks any true star power. This is essentially a playoff to get into the Summer League playoff so it’ll be hotly contested, but I think the Spurs come out on top.

NBA Summer League (0.25 Unit) Golden State Warriors +9.5 vs Toronto Raptors (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on NBA TV

I think this number is out of control, even though the Raptors are undefeated and looking for a spot in the playoff. Toronto has a good roster with a lot of size, but haven’t been able to put a couple of objectively bad teams away in their past two games. The Warriors will probably be bothered by that size, but they’ve overcome that disadvantage in previous games this week for two wins. The Warriors will be able to play a looser style tonight and I think that keeps them within single digits, so I can see why steam brought this number down a little bit.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-15 (-1.3 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.