Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 07/11

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) Cincinnati Reds Team Total Over 5.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on COLR

It’s difficult to score 6 runs in baseball, but it’s a whole lot easier against Colorado. That’s why so many of their opponents keep doing it, with 6.2 runs per game on average this season. So honestly any team with a functional offense should be set at 5.5 with heavier juice to the over, so I’ll take this price any day. Especially with a team like the Reds who are good at punishing bad pitching, and hit righties extremely well.

That’s going to serve them well tonight against German Marquez, who somehow manages to hold a higher ERA, WHIP, and on-base average allowed on the road than at Coors Field. And with the Rockies it’s not just about the awful starting pitching, but the awful relievers and terrible defense that allow runs to stack up. It’s a hot night in Cincy so the ball will be jumping in this hitter-friendly park, and I expect the Reds to run it up.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays/Athletics Over 10.5 (-115; Odds via Fanduel): 9:05 PM CT on SNET

A red hot Toronto offense goes to Sacramento, to face awful pitching in a small ballpark with amazing hitting conditions. The Jays might hit this over themselves, as they get to see Luis Severino at home tonight, who still has a 7.04 ERA at home despite a strong last outing. His three starts after that have all been disastrous, and this hot Jays offense looks like it should capitalize against him and the league’s most generous bullpen.

But don’t sell the A’s short here, as they should be able to contribute against Max Scherzer. The aging vet is always good for a couple of runs allowed, and the A’s have gotten much better against righties as the season progresses. The big story here for me is the weather conditions, as it’s very hot in Sacramento with a strong wind blowing out to dead center. Toronto has the second-best record to the over in general, and this park is third in overs cashing, so the high total is justified but not high enough.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Luis Severino Over 3.5 Earned Runs (+100; Odds via DraftKings)

Severino has been awful lately since he finally had a good home start, allowing 7 and 5 earned runs on the road where he’s usually much better, then 5 more at home to a weak Giants offense. That makes it 7-4 over this total in his home starts, and a Toronto team that’s swinging hot bats in these conditions has to knock him around for a lot of runs tonight.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Logan Webb Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+105; Odds via DraftKings): 9:15 PM CT on MLB Network

Asking Webb to pitch into the 7th inning really isn’t asking a lot. It’s something he’s done in 11 of 19 starts this season, including 6 of his 9 home starts. That’s where he’s been dominant, posting a 1.52 ERA and 1.11 WHIP this season, and I think he can keep it going tonight despite the Dodgers being in town. It’s a Dodgers squad that he doesn’t have great numbers against, but LA is mired in a terrible slump right now and Webb went 7 strong against them on the road a month ago. With this plus-juice return, it’s worth it to see if Webb can extend those woes for the Dodgers and pitch deep in this hyped home spot.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 17-12 (+1.85 Units) – Recommend: Tail

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.