Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 07/09

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) Michael Busch Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120; Odds via DraftKings): 6:40 PM CT on MNNT

Busch hit the ball extremely hard last night and just got unlucky with where it went. I’m sticking to my priors of him being locked in right now, as the past couple of weeks have seen him bat .426 with a 1.322 OPS so he’s raking every night. And matching him up against another righty in David Festa gives him another opportunity to thrive in his dominant hitting split. The price has even improved after last night’s one-base game, so call me fearless or stubborn, I don’t care, I’m coming right back with this prop tonight.

MLB (1 Unit) 2-Leg Prop Parlay (+170; Odds via DraftKings)

Tomoyuki Sugano Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-160): 6:05 PM CT on ESPN

This is juiced to the moon, and for good reason, as the books want to scare you off an easy winner. Sugano averages just over 6 hits allowed per start this season, and that average is climbing rapidly as major league hitters figure out the rookie’s pitching.

His past 7 starts have seen his WHIP rise to 1.79 and go over this hits prop easily in all but one game. The Mets are hitting extremely well right now, and are top-5 in both OPS and wOBA against righties, so I’m adding what should be an easy leg to a parlay instead of absorbing all that juice.

Sandy Alcantara Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-150): 6:10 PM CT on Fanduel Sports OH

Speaking of easy, getting to Sandy when he’s pitching on the road has been extremely easy for any offense with a pulse. He’s now sporting a 9.95 ERA on the road, just astronomically high for a pitcher of his former caliber. But his name value still keeps prop totals lined in ways they shouldn’t, but books have adjusted with another price here designed to scare you off.

I’ll add this to a parlay though because he’s gone over this in 6 of 7 road starts this year, with the only outlier coming against the pitiful Pirates. The Reds are relatively average against righties and in a bit of a slump, but this is the perfect opportunity to pull themselves out of it.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Texas Rangers/LA Angels Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:38 PM CT on RSN

I did not have 11 and 14 runs the past two nights between these teams on my bingo card, not with the pitching matchups in those games. I was waiting for tonight and this pitching matchup to jump in on the proposition of runs, ideally at a lower number after low-scoring games for a couple of nights. While I won’t get that discount here, I’m still expecting plenty of scoring to continue between these teams.

A big reason is Kumar Rocker starting for Texas and bringing his 9.41 ERA, 2.09 WHIP, and .362 opponent on-base average in road games to Angel Stadium. LA tagged him for 3 runs in Texas where he’s much better and runs go to die, so expect another blowup start from him here. We also might be watching the Ranger offense finally play to its potential in recent weeks, and they have good numbers against Kyle Hendricks who gets the start tonight. With the wind blowing out as usual, expect both offenses to contribute in getting over this total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-15 (-1.85 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.