Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 07/07

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) Pittsburgh Pirates/KC Royals First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-105; Odds via Caesars): 6:40 PM CT on Fanduel Sports KC

The total in this game is actually on the rise, and I don’t understand that one bit. Have books been paying attention to Pittsburgh and their scoreless-in-Seattle series over the weekend, or the fact that these are the two lowest-scoring teams in baseball? This Pirates offense is about as bad as it gets, especially against lefties like they’ll see tonight in Noah Cameron. The rookie has been dominant against every lineup not named the Yankees or Dodgers, and a Pirates team that is bottom-5 in every metric against lefties should keep struggling.

But there are still a few teams that are worse against lefties than Pittsburgh, and buried all the way at the bottom of the scoring chart happens to be the Royals. This KC offense is average to below average in getting hits, but simply cannot convert them into runs when a lefty is on the mound. So despite plenty of reservations I have about Andrew Heaney, I think he’s able to keep KC’s bats quiet in a classic Malinsky Special spot for the Royals, and help hold this under the early total.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Pittsburgh Pirates Team Total Under 3.5 (+110; Odds via Caesars)

Behind Noah Cameron is a Royals bullpen that is 6th in total ERA and has allowed the 4th-fewest runs overall this season. The Pirates have played 91 games this season and have gone over this total just 37 times, and yet the books are going to offer a plus-juice return in a bad pitching matchup? Cool, I’ll take that bet.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Jose Berrios Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+105; Odds via DraftKings): 6:40 PM CT on TSN

This is another classic Malinsky Special impacting the White Sox, as they return home after a West Coast road trip without a day off. They also spent a holiday weekend at elevation playing the Rockies, and coming back to sea level to play right away can have a negative impact on an already weak offense.

So Berrios should be in a good position to shut this lineup down, just like he did a couple weeks ago when the White Sox went to Toronto and only got 2 hits off Berrios. The Blue Jays ace actually has a better WHIP and on-base average allowed in road games, so I think he holds the southsiders to very little production tonight.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Texas Rangers/LA Angels First 5 Innings Under 3.5 (-105; Odds via Caesars): 8:38 PM CT on Fanduel Sports West

The MLB scheduling department did a lot of teams dirty for today’s games after July 4th weekend, and maybe none more so than the Malinsky Special they gave to the Angels. They were just in Toronto yesterday afternoon, and had to travel back home to play on no rest against a Rangers team that was down the road in San Diego. But the Rangers are in a typically tough situation too, having lost on Sunday Night Baseball and then traveling to play the next day.

All of those factors should hold down scoring production tonight, but the pitching matchup is where it really gets rough for both teams. The Angels have to face Jacob deGrom after that travel, who has quietly been lights out for months and LA struggles to hit righties in general. But Texas has big problems in front of them against Yusei Kikuchi, who has great numbers against them and as a lefty puts them in a horrific hitting split. The Rangers are  26th in scoring against lefties, along with 29th in average and most advanced metrics, so don’t expect many runs from them or the travel-weary Angels in this one.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres -0.5 First 5 Innings (+115; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on MLB Network

I’m surprised to see this number available with the pitching matchup that is set for tonight. Yu Darvish makes his return off the 60-day IL for his first start of the season, and while Arizona has great numbers against righties on the year, they’re just too injury-plagued to produce like that against Darvish. And I think they’re definitely going to need runs to keep up with the hole Zac Gallen puts them in.

The D’backs righty has been awful in his past few road starts, with a couple of those against pitiful offenses, and has a 5.21 ERA on the road overall. Gallen also gave up 6 hits and 4 earned at home to the Padres in his other start against them this season, so that level of success from SD here should give the home team a lead after 5 innings.

Degenerates

WNBA Golden State Valkyries +7 @ Atlanta Dream (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on Peachtree TV

If not for some late-game shenanigans that impacted the point spread (in my favor, I’m not hiding from it) on Saturday, the Valkyries would really be rolling in the ATS department. Regardless, they’ll take their 10-5 ATS mark as an underdog to the ATL, and face a Dream squad that I think is a little overvalued based a couple key wins and might be missing Rhyne Howard tonight.

This Golden State team has no quit, and this number that stretches into the 3-possessions range is a lot of points to be holding for a team like that. While their pricing has maybe swung a little too far based on all the unexpected success, I still like the number and the team I’m getting it with.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-12 (+1.57 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.