Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 07/02

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Trevor Williams Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+110; Odds via DraftKings): 12:05 PM CT on Fanduel Sports Detroit

It seems like Williams is always good for a few earned runs, and facing a good offense here should be no different. The Tigers aren’t elite by any means against righties like Williams, but they’re solidly above average in every offensive metric and have been scoring much better the past month.

That’s the key, as every above average team that’s seen Williams has tagged him for enough runs to clear this prop total, and he’s 10-6 over it on the season. With a 5.89 ERA at home, I expect Detroit to jump on him right away on a humid afternoon in DC where the ball will compress better.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135; Odds via DraftKings): 5:15 PM CT on SDPA

Lineups could get tricky in this second game of the doubleheader today, but Schwarber is usually an everyday player so I expect him to be in the lineup. The Phillies will want him there against Dylan Cease, as he’s gone 3-for-7 in his career against the Padre righty with two of those going over the fence and the other for a double.

It was a quiet June for Schwarbs which is very unusual considering his history, so the annual summertime breakout should be here any moment. This should be a solid opportunity against Cease’s 6.31 ERA on the road in good hitting conditions, and I really like the price here considering the name brand player.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115; Odds via DraftKings): 6:07 PM CT on Prime Video

Anyone who knows me knows I’m an All Rise guy, but betting on my favorite player in the total bases market usually comes with prohibitive juice. This is maybe the best price I’ve seen on him all season, and I can’t pass up the opportunity against a pitcher he’s owned.

Judge has of course owned plenty of pitchers in his day, but Jose Berrios has given up a .378 average and 1.292 OPS to him with a large sample size of 37 at-bats. There are 5 home runs and 2 doubles in that sample size as well, so a strong history and discounted price have me jumping in here.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Jacob Misiorowski Alt Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+140; Odds via DraftKings): 6:10 PM CT on Fanduel Sports WI

I for one think this freakshow of a pitcher is just getting started. He’s only given up 3 total hits and 2 earned runs in his now 16 innings of work at the big league level, to go along with 19 strikeouts. His height and wild delivery bring back memories of Randy Johnson, and it’s very difficult for hitters to adjust when they’ve never seen him before.

The Mets will get their first look at him tonight, and if any of their putrid offensive performances in Pittsburgh over the weekend linger, they’ll really struggle against Misiorowski here. At some point the Brewers are going to let him go deeper into games and Misiorowski is averaging over 10 K’s-per-nine, so I think the alt market is where to back him and wouldn’t be mad at going up the ladder even further.

MLB (1 Unit) 2-Leg Prop/ML Parlay (+130; Odds via DraftKings)

Merrill Kelly Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-131): 8:40 PM CT on ARID

At some point this run for Merrill Kelly will end, but as long as they keep hanging numbers like this I’m riding the streak. Books must be expecting the April version of Kelly to come back soon, as he’s gone over this number in every start from May 7th on, averaging 7.3 per game in those 10 starts. He has the talent and he has the history of success against a Giants team that strikes out at the 12th-highest rate against righties. The juice is not at a level I’m interested in laying though, and instead of looking to the alt market I’ll tie it to this next leg for a plus-money return.

Chicago White Sox @ LA Dodgers (-328): 9:10 PM CT on MLB Network

There’s nothing you can do with the Dodgers as a team in this game except put them in a parlay like this. They should run away with this game, but I’m not in the habit of needing to lay juice with a home team’s run line or play the alt run line. But I’m not seeing how this game could go poorly for them with Clayton Kershaw starting, and facing a likely bullpen game from Chicago. Kershaw has turned back the clock and given LA much-needed starter success, and they’ll win this game for their wily vet to close the parlay.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Andy Pages Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105; Odds via DraftKings): 9:10 PM CT on MLB Network

I’m still rolling with Pages after he paid off last night with a double in the first inning. As long as I can get a plus-juice return with the budding star center fielder when he’s at home, I’m in. It’s wild to see, but Pages is getting shorter juice in the total bases market than teammates Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, so take advantage before it gets priced out.

The best thing about Pages in this game is that he’s not matchup-dependent, as he hits lefties and righties just about the same. That helps his chances in what appears to be a bullpen game for the White Sox as he could see any pitcher at any time, and I think he cashes in again.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 14-14 (+2.37 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.