Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 07/01

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Alec Burleson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125; Odds via DraftKings): 5:40 PM CT on SportsNet PT

Going against Paul Skenes is kind of terrifying, but this seems like a decent spot to do it in general and a good option specifically. Burleson knows how to hit the Pirates phenom, going 6-for-15 in his career for a .400 average and .904 OPS, which is not something many MLB hitters can claim. He’s also coming off a scorching month of June where he averaged 2.1 bases per game, so that shouldn’t slow down just because the calendar flipped to July.

The St Louis first baseman is a much better hitter against righties like Skenes, and also hits for a much higher average and OPS on the road. As for Skenes, he’s coming off a rough outing in Milwaukee where he gave up 4 runs in 4 innings, which actually wasn’t his worst of the season. That came at home against this Cardinals team which seems to know how to get to him, so I’ll back their hottest bat to keep that up at a generous price.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Chase Dollander Over 3.5 Earned Runs (+120; Odds via DraftKings): 7:40 PM CT on COLR

I’ve been frustrated by Houston and their inability to cash in runs, but their ability to rack up hits should be a benefit here. The Astros lead all of baseball in hits against righthanded pitchers like Dollander, plus they’re 8th in average and 6th in batting average of balls in play. So going to elevation at Coors with the wind blowing out should give them a big boost in getting runs across with a pitcher like Dollander going. The Rockies righty now owns an 8.54 ERA at home, to go along with a 1.75 WHIP and .306 on-base average allowed. He’s been on a short leash lately so Houston will have to jump on him early, but the number of threats they can create should turn into plenty of runs against a bad pitcher and defense.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Andy Pages Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115; Odds via DraftKings): 9:10 PM CT on MLB Network

Pages was just about the hottest hitter in baseball a couple weeks ago, but this recent road trip of the Dodgers cooled him off. That makes sense considering he hits 61 points higher at home than on the road, and averages 2.1 bases per game at Dodger Stadium, so a little home cooking will do him good here. That cool-down also changed his pricing considerably in the total bases market, as he was laying ridiculous juice in Coors that never came to fruition. But back in the plus-juice range is where I want to attack, especially against White Sox pitching as a struggling Shane Smith and their bad bullpen come to town.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Indiana Fever @ Minnesota Lynx -3.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Prime Video

This is entirely based on the availability of Caitlin Clark who is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. It’s tough to say if she would give it a go and play through injury for the Commissioner’s Cup, or if the team will hold her out with a tricky groin injury after she missed so much time already this year. The line is certainly moving like she won’t play though, with the Lynx being bumped up a couple of points from the opener.

If Clark is a no-go then Minnesota should crush the Fever out of the gates as a shorthanded Indiana is no match for them. The Lynx are a motivated team for high-profile games like this in their revenge tour season, and the Cup prize money is extra incentive. There should be a big crowd at Target Center to give them an additional early boost, and the way they’ve been playing first halves in situations like this gives me confidence that they’ll be rolling by halftime.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 14-17 (-0.11 Units) – Recommend: Fade

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.