Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 06/30

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) NY Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays Same-Game Parlay (+115; Odds via DraftKings): 6:07 PM CT on SNET

Vladimir Guerrero Jr Over 0.5 Hits (-210) & Ernie Clement Over 0.5 Hits (-225)

Both of these guys are worth a look in the total bases market tonight at very favorable returns, but just asking them to each get a hit feels safer. That’s because I’ve been waiting what seems like forever to see Toronto match up with a lefty starter, and while it’s Carlos Rodon, I still like the matchups here. Especially for Guerrero who has lifetime numbers of a .667 average and 1.817 OPS against Rodon, and is crushing lefties in general this season. With Clement it’s simply the matchup against a lefthander, as he’s hitting .425 with a 1.184 OPS against southpaws this season, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see both of them get a base knock in their first at-bats to close this out.

Bonus Bets (Odds via DraftKings)

0.25 Unit – Vladimir Guerrero Jr Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)

0.25 Unit – Ernie Clement Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140)

Yeah, like I said, very favorable returns here for two guys that find themselves in excellent matchups tonight. With Clement it’s an auto-play for me against any lefty, and Vladdy’s 13 bases in just 12 career at-bats against Rodon is too good to pass up.

MLB (0.25 Unit) Chase Burns Alt Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+130; Odds via DraftKings): 6:10 PM CT on NESN

Welcome to the big leagues Chase Burns. What a way to start a major league career by getting your first 6 outs via the strikeout. Burns went on to log 8 K’s over just 5 innings in that start last week against the Yankees, who are definitely strikeout-prone with the 7th-highest K rate in baseball against righties. But Burns will see the 3rd-highest K rate team in the Red Sox tonight, so opportunity will be there for him.

Boston has not been in a good place offensively since losing Alec Bregman to injury and shipping off Rafael Devers, so they should be vulnerable to an elite talent like Burns. The rookie righty will likely get a longer start tonight which again means more opportunity, and I like taking the juicy return here in the alt market instead of laying heavy juice on the standard number.

MLB (0.25 Unit) Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 Hits (+155; Odds via DraftKings): 8:40 PM CT on ROOT Sports NW

Not many hitters are more on fire than Raleigh, or sustaining it as much as he is. This current run he’s on has him as the AL MVP favorite without Aaron Judge, but that also serves to inflate his price on everything and at some point you just have to buy back in the other direction. I think tonight is as good a spot as any for that, with the Mariners returning home from a long road trip which typically bogs down offenses in general. And they see Michael Wacha right away, who Raleigh has faced 10 times in his career and never gotten a hit. Interestingly, Raleigh has much worse numbers at home, and against righties, so I’ll hold my nose here and look for just his 7th hitless game this month at a juicy return.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-18 (-1.65 Units) – Recommend: Fade

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.