Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 06/29

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Twins/Detroit Tigers Over 7 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

Not sure the Twins are worth of Sunday Night Baseball the way they’re playing, but they get a turn anyway. I was shocked to see this total open at 6.5 which would be tied for the lowest of the season, but smart money bumped it up to a flat 7 here. I would agree, even with Tarik Skubal taking the mound for the Tigers, and he has owned Minnesota’s lineup in his career. But he’s shown a couple of cracks lately, and a couple of runs from the Twins might be all that’s needed to clear this low total.

That’s because Chris Paddack starts again for the Twins, and he’s been awful in his last three starts plus rough on the road this year. The Tigers should find him very hittable tonight, and it’s not inconceivable that they hang 7 runs themselves since they’ve done at least that 10 times in the past month alone. This number is just too low and depends on name recognition with Skubal to entice under bettors, so I’ll take the over here.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 @ Baltimore Orioles (+150; Odds via BetMGM): 12:35 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SUN

I was gun-shy with the Rays yesterday after they lost 22-8 the night before, and only backed them to get to Baltimore’s starter. Well, I’m back on the train of laying the run line with them on the road, and have to take advantage of both this price and the spot while it exists. I just can’t get past the fact that they’re the best road team in the league while Baltimore now sits 13-27 to the run line at home.

Today’s pitching matchup might look like a toss-up, but digging deeper finds some strong evidence that the Rays have the advantage. They’ll start Taj Bradley who’s been much better on the road with a 3.32 ERA and .193 on-base average allowed. And while Dean Kremer has solid numbers at home this season, he’s faced almost nothing but teams that can’t hit righties. So a Rays team that leads MLB in average and is top-10 in every other metric against righties will bring him his overdue regression, and send the Orioles to another run line loss.

Bonus Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings):

0.5 Unit – Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)

0.25 Unit – Gunnar Henderson Alt Over 2.5 Total Bases (+175

0.5 Unit – Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)

0.25 Unit – Brandon Lowe Alt Over 2.5 Total Bases (+190)

0.25 Unit – Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)

MLB (0.5 Unit) Washington Nationals/LA Angels Over 10 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:07 PM CT on MASN2

After 24 and 10 runs the past two nights, I just have to back this series to sweep the overs, especially with how the pitching has looked from these two teams and should continue to look today. The starters today are below-average at best, and should get knocked around, which leads to relief arms from two of the worst bullpens in baseball coming in to further the damage instead of control it.

Mitchell Parker starting for the Nationals should give LA a good chance to improve against lefties, which they have terrible numbers against but actually lead MLB in hard contact percentage. And the Nats should bounce back against Jack Kochanowicz who has a 5.40 ERA and .309 on-base average allowed at home, a big reason why his home starts average 10.3 runs per game. Good hitting conditions should help these offenses thrive against poor pitching all around, and send this over the high total.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Connecticut Sun @ Minnesota Lynx -11.5 First Half (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North

Connecticut is hands down the worst team in the WNBA this season, and have had plenty of games where they’re simply not competitive, especially in the first half on the road. They’re averaging a minus-9.6 average first half margin in road games, and have only held two halftime leads in their 10 road games: once in Indiana when Caitlin Clark didn’t play, and the other at Target Center.

That was an ugly win that the Lynx managed to pull out after shooting horribly from everywhere on the court, and I have to imagine they’re looking to play far better against the Sun tonight. This is a team Minnesota can dominate if they play anywhere close to their ability, and I think we see a strong start from them in a motivated spot.

WNBA (0.25 Unit) Seattle Storm @ Golden State Valkyries +5.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on CW Seattle

Go against the Valkyries at your own risk. I’m not laying points with anyone against them, especially not on the road, as this expansion group has been feisty. A home ATS record of 7-2, along with an overall 9-4 ATS mark when catching points has been proving doubters of their talent wrong all season. That would include the last time Seattle came to town two weeks ago, as the Storm were laying 9.5 and lost outright. This number is a significant adjustment, but is still covering the key number of 5 points and I’m taking it.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 11-19 (-2.45 Units) – Recommend: Fade

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.