Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 06/27

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Twins/Detroit Tigers Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on Fanduel Sports Detroit

The Twins haven’t officially announced a starter for this game, but I’m not sure it matters as both clubs might be automatic plays to the over right now. They’ve both gone 8-2 over this total in each of their past 10 games, with 11.6 runs on average for Detroit games and 12.0 for Twins games in that stretch. Both offenses are clicking, both pitching staffs are struggling, and a relatively low number here is not reflecting that reality. It will be a matchup of back-end, replacement level starters no matter what, and this should be an easy total to clear.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 @ Baltimore Orioles (+125; Odds via Caesars): 6:05 PM CT on Apple TV+

Backing the Rays at prices like this is the best thing going in baseball right now, so I’ll keep going back to the well with it. Their last series was a great opportunity to target them as the league’s best road team visiting KC who is the league’s second-worst ATS team in home games. How fortunate for Tampa that they now go to Baltimore, owners of the absolute worst home ATS record, along with the worst ATS plus/minus. Years ago, when the Orioles looked like they do this season on the regular, Tampa absolutely owned them straight up and on the run line. Behind a quality starter in Ryan Pepiot who is better on the road, I see a return to those days of old and will take the juicy price here.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Seattle Mariners/Texas Rangers First 5 Innings Under 3.5 (+100; Odds via Fanduel): 7:10 PM CT on ROOT Sports NW

I know I’ve said it before, but I’ll say it again: Texas is where runs go to die. The Rangers are baseball’s best under team overall, and at home it gets ridiculous with a 29-10 under record, going under by 2.1 runs per game. But the Rangers and Mariners have actually gone 4-2 over tonight’s total in their 6 meetings, and given the elite pitching matchup here I’m following my rule and isolating the first five innings.

Nathan Eovaldi returns from injury for Texas tonight, and if he returns to the form he was in a month ago when he got hurt that’s great news for the Rangers as he was sporting a 0.70 ERA and 0.85 WHIP across his last 7 starts. The other half of the expected pitcher’s duel is Logan Gilbert, who has always shut down this Rangers lineup, allowing just a .168 average and .555 OPS in his career against them. With the way games go in this ballpark, expect these excellent starters to keep the first half of this game quiet.

MLB (0.5 Unit) LA Dodgers @ KC Royals First 5 Innings ML (+110; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on MLB Network

The best team in baseball is visiting one of the league's biggest disappointments that can’t hit or score, especially against righties which they’ll see tonight, and the price to back LA is very low. Oh no you don’t Vegas, I’m not falling for that one and neither should you. There are several things working in favor of the Royals tonight in the first five innings that make them worth a play on the moneyline here.

First is how good Noah Cameron has been, and the fact that LA has never seen the excellent rookie starter. Secondly, the Dodgers have their own starting pitcher issues with Dustin May’s 5.94 ERA on the road, leading to them being just 1-4-1 on the F5 moneyline in his road starts. They’re also just coming from Colorado yesterday, and the elevation change can cause sluggish starts which LA has been prone to anyway, so I’ll back KC early tonight.

MLB (1 Unit) Merrill Kelly Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100; Odds via DraftKings): 8:38 PM CT on ARID

I absolutely cannot believe this number, or the fact that the over on it isn’t at least juiced to the moon. It’s unlike books to make egregious mistakes, so I’m scared of a too-good-to-be-true situation, but I’m diving in nonetheless. It’s because Kelly has been a strikeout machine, with 9 straight starts of going over this number with 7.3 on average. He’s not really known as a strikeout pitcher and the Marlins are just average with their K-rate against righties, so that should hold the number down to some degree. But at this level and with this price attached I simply can’t pass it up, and I’m also going up the ladder to put a quarter unit on over 6.5 K’s at a +180 price point.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 11-16 (-2.11 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.