Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 06/26

Locks

MLB (1 Unit) Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 @ KC Royals (+135; Odds via Caesars): 1:10 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SUN

The slide for Kansas City continues, while the surge for Tampa continues right along with it. I think those converging trends stay true to form this afternoon with this pitching matchup that should heavily favor the Rays. They’ll be sending out Shane Baz, who has been much better on the road when he’s not in their temporary minor league park. He was rocked by the Royals in the first series almost two months ago, but KC has fallen off so much against righthanded pitching since that I have no faith in their bats today.

The Rays have greatly benefited from his starts overall, going 11-4 with 9 of those wins by multiple runs. And Tampa’s offense is locked in enough right now where I think they can get the necessary hits against Michael Lorenzen, who is simply a below-average pitcher in this league. I mentioned yesterday how Tampa is the best road team in MLB while the Royals are a terrible ATS home team, and I think that pays off again here with this juicy return.

MLB (0.75 Unit) LA Dodgers Team Total Over 7.5 (+105; Odds via Caesars): 2:10 PM CT on COLR

Let’s go right back to this well too since it’s the typically frustrating short Thursday card in MLB today. The Dodgers got to 8 runs last night just like I said they would, and there’s potential for even more this afternoon. It will be warmer at Coors today compared to last night’s rain-delayed game, giving their lineup even better conditions to crush Austin Gomber in.

The Colorado lefty has always been susceptible to both Coors Field and day games, so this LA lineup that is built to mash lefties shouldn’t have much trouble. It’s also worth noting the Dodgers have had big nights at the plate three games in a row with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman mired in long slumps, so if they happen to break out, watch out. They’ve also taken full advantage of the Rockies bullpen the past two nights, so the opportunity for a lot of runs should last all 9 of their turns at the plate.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Griffin Canning Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+100; Odds via DraftKings): 6:10 PM CT on MLB Network

The Braves have been a decidedly average offense all season, but they’re gradually improving and have too much talent not to break out at some point. The result though is cheap prices on relatively low numbers like this, and I think it’s a good opportunity to jump in. Atlanta is, again, pretty average when it comes to success against righties like Canning, but their advanced numbers show better potential and they’re 9th in weighted runs created.

They haven’t seen much of Canning as a team, but have good cumulative success with a .326 average and .985 OPS. Canning has been much worse at home this season with a 4.95 ERA and elevated WHIP, plus his past 6 starts have seen him go over this total 5 times with a 6.49 ERA. One mistake by him against this Braves lineup with all their potential can send him over this prop, and I think it gets there.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Marcell Ozuna Alt Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140; Odds via DraftKings)

The one Braves bat that doesn’t seem to miss his opportunities against Canning is Ozuna, as Big Bear has 4 hits in 5 at-bats with 2 of those going over the fence. Ozuna has been in a power outage all month, but I’ll buy low here given the prior success and hope that he’s part of the bigger Atlanta offensive breakout.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 12-18 (-3.01 Units) – Recommend: Fade Hard

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.