Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 06/25

Locks

MLB (1 Unit) Athletics/Detroit Tigers Over 8.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on Fanduel Sports Detroit

I could not have been more wrong about an excellent pitching matchup yesterday holding down scoring, so baseball betting logic probably means this poor pitching matchup will be the one that actually results in a low-scoring game. Jack Flaherty is one of the many Tigers starters that has been hit hard lately as regression has come for the whole staff, and even though the A’s aren’t great against righties, I’m expecting those struggles to continue today.

The one thing going very well for Detroit right now however is the bats, and that’s helped carry them to a 14-6 mark over this total in their past 20 games. They should be able to knock around Jacob Lopez and an awful Athletics bullpen, but the bottom line for me is these clubs are an automatic over right now and this is a low total for how they’re both playing.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 @ KC Royals (+135; Odds via BetMGM): 6:40 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SUN

This is a good place to attack the run line for a hot team, as they’re only a short favorite so the return is juicy, plus they get all their at-bats as the road team so they can pad the lead. And the Rays are certainly hot, going 21-9 the past month, and also happen to be the league’s best road team. They have the best straight up record away from home and the best ATS mark at 20-9, with the best ATS plus/minus as well.

Compare that to Kansas City, who has really fallen off since they swept the Rays in Tampa at the start of May. They’re now the second-worst ATS team at home with a 13-26 record, thanks to the power being completely shut off in their lineup. I think that continues tonight against Drew Rasmussen, who’s been dominant with a 1.83 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in his last 7 starts. With the Rays hitting everything, they should give Michael Wacha trouble and pull away for another run line cover.

MLB (0.75 Unit) LA Dodgers Team Total Over 6.5 (-125; Odds via Caesars): 7:40 PM CT on COLR

Yoshi Yamamoto is expected to dominate the weak Colorado bats in this game, which is why the Dodgers are a more than three dollar favorite tonight. What that also does is hold down the total in this game, much lower than what you’d expect in Coors this time of year with the Rockies allowing 7.6 runs per game at home, and in turn naturally deflates LA’s isolated total. That has me jumping in with them facing Chase Dollander, who must hate pitching at home by now and certainly doesn’t want to see the Dodgers lineup in Coors.

It’s been rough for Dollander at home, posting a 9.58 ERA and .341 opponent on-base average allowed in 5 starts, with the visitor averaging 7.8 total runs in those games. The Dodgers just put up 9 last night in a game where they had to get used to elevation, so being adjusted now should set them up for another big night. LA has the best numbers in baseball against righties, and I’m expecting 8 or more from them tonight so play this at a plus-juice price if you see 7.5 as well.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 10-20 (-4.91 Units) – Recommend: Fade Hard

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.