Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 06/24

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Athletics/Detroit Tigers First 5 Innings Under 3.5 (+105; Odds via Fanduel): 5:40 PM CT on Fanduel Sports Detroit

Since this game is being held in Detroit, this is an elite pitching matchup. Tarik Skubal as the favorite for AL Cy Young is the obvious half of that equation, but if Luis Severino only pitched on the road he’d be running away with the Cy Young. Skubal at home owns a 1.88 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and .208 opponent on-base average, which doesn’t top Severino’s 0.93 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and .194 opponent on-base average in road games. The Tigers desperately need a strong outing from a starter, and Severino is just a machine away from home, so I don’t see the offenses doing much early in this one.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Luis Severino Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-105; Odds via DraftKings)

The Detroit offense is sneaky good, but they do tend to struggle against righthanders like Severino, and I don’t see them having much success against the away-from-home version. On the season, the A’s righty has only allowed 4 total earned runs in road games, shutting down teams much better than the Tigers are against righties, so this should be another great start for him.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Brent Rooker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140; Odds via DraftKings)

This number is too good to pass up with Rooker, and offers a bit of a hedge against the F5 under. Rooker has had a ton of success against Skubal, batting .429 with a 1.333 OPS and 2 home runs in his career, and is crushing lefties this season in general. He’s had a good month of June so far with a .308 average and 1.8 bases per game, so he’s a great option in the bases market at this price.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135; Odds via DraftKings): 6:10 PM CT on TBS

Much like with Skubal above, books often have a hard time pricing total bases props with an elite starter going in the game. Spencer Strider is still one of the best around, but no pitcher is immune to a bad matchup. That’s what he has here with Nimmo, who has owned him for a .474 average and 1.545 OPS with 2 doubles, a triple, and 2 home runs in his career.

Nimmo is also racking up the bases like crazy this month, batting .309 with 52 total bases which works out to just over 2.5 per game. I’m not mad at taking a look at the alt bases market for him either, and yep, just talked myself into sprinkling that, so add a quarter unit at +255 for Nimmo to go over 2.5 total bases.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Andrew Heaney Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+115; Odds via DraftKings): 6:40 PM CT on SportsNet PT

Twins fans are all too familiar with how Milwaukee has been raking lately, piling up a ton of hits in just about every game. I think that continues tonight against Heaney, who as a lefty puts the Brewers in their slightly better hitting split. They also have a good history to lean on, as their lineup has a cumulative .361 average and 1.021 OPS for their careers against Heaney. A good early season for the Pirates starter has started to take what was an inevitable turn, so in my opinion this is a good spot and price to be buying low on his incoming regression.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Boston Red Sox Team Total Over 4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:38 PM CT on NESN

I’m tempted to take the first five innings over of 2.5 runs for Boston here, which has plus juice no less, because of what I see as another mistake by the books on pitcher props. Tyler Anderson starts for the Angels and his earned runs prop is 2.5 with massive -165 juice to the over, so he’s expected to give up a lot of runs and he only averages 5.4 innings per start.

As tempting as that is, I have to stick with the full game total for Boston because of LA’s bullpen owning the third-highest ERA in the league. The Sox should smack Anderson around because they’re one of the best in baseball against lefties, and could conceivably hit this total before he gets pulled, but only needing 5 runs against this pitching staff as a whole is not asking much.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Lynx -9.5 @ Washington Mystics (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North

If the Lynx are laying less than double digits, I’m always intrigued. With a plus-10.7 average point differential this season Minnesota is taking care of business on a nightly basis, and discounted numbers like this are where I want to capitalize. It’s true, Napheesa Collier’s status is important, and they may hold her out again with a big game in Atlanta coming up Friday night.

Honestly they might not need her with how well the defense is playing though, as the Lynx now lead the league in points allowed. That makes it very easy to shut down an inconsistent team like the Mystics, who have really struggled against the better defenses in the league, only averaging 74.0 PPG against the Liberty, Dream, and Mercury. The Lynx meanwhile haven’t played a single-digit margin game all month, so I’m laying this relatively short number with them here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 9-16 (-3.41 Units) – Recommend: Fade

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.