Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 06/23

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) New York Yankees Team Total Over 5.5 (+105; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on YES

That stretch of futility out of the Yankee bats was really strange, especially the scoreless innings streak. I have a feeling some of that is still lingering with them, but typically this season, the cure for what ails the Yankees has been facing a lefthanded starter. That’s what they’ll get today in Nick Lodolo, and there are a couple of things working in New York’s favor.

They just don’t miss lefties, scoring the most runs and leading baseball in weighted runs created, along with ranking 2nd in both wOBA and OPS. Putting that level of success in the small Cincinnati park, with beneficial hitting conditions, against Lodolo who has struggled at home, should be the recipe for scoring plenty of runs tonight.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Eduardo Rodriguez Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+115; Odds via DraftKings): 6:40 PM CT on ARID

I realize I’m asking the White Sox to do something good here, which is not how I’d like to start off my week. But they’re not really awful like they were in the last couple of seasons, and actually showing some signs of life early in games. I think they can rack up some hits against Rodriguez here, who always seems to give up a ton of hits, going over this total in 8 of his 12 starts this season. His WHIP jumps to 1.74 on the road, and as a lefty he puts the White Sox in their preferred hitting split. So even if they don’t turn them into runs, I’m expecting enough hits from Chicago to cash this juicy return today.

MLB (1 Unit) Chicago Cubs/St Louis Cardinals Over 9 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 6:45 PM CT on Marquee

These offenses have more than enough potential to blow right past this total, especially with the pitchers and weather conditions for this game. It’s extremely hot in St Louis, and the wind is blowing out to left at Busch Stadium tonight, so that makes for great hitting conditions.

With Ben Brown starting for the Cubs, that puts St Louis in their better hitting split, and 3 of his past 4 road starts have been disastrous outings. Behind him is a bullpen that was run ragged over the weekend in all the slugfests with Seattle, so I think Chicago is in trouble from a pitching standpoint.

And Matthew Liberatore going for the Cardinals should keep the Cubs bats locked in, as they’re a top-10 offense against lefties. Liberatore has had blowup starts in 3 of his past 4 outings overall and the St Louis pen is just average, so expect big nights from both offenses to clear this total.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Ian Happ Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110; Odds via DraftKings)

Against a lefty is where you want to back Happ, as even though he’s a switch hitter he’s batting 44 points higher against lefties this season. As the leadoff man he will get the most opportunities for bases, and he’s also a solid threat to steal a bag. He only has two at-bats with one hit against Liberatore in his career, but that hit happened to go over the fence so I’ll take this price on multiple bases tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-18 (-1.41 Units) – Recommend: Fade

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.