Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 06/21

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Texas Rangers/Pittsburgh Pirates Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:05 PM CT on FS1

This is really a gut pick for me based on the weather and what I think these starting pitchers are capable of allowing. It’s ideal hitting conditions at PNC Park today with warm temperatures and the wind blowing out, which should give a boost to these normally dysfunctional offenses. The Pirates should do better than usual at the plate though as they face Kumar Rocker, who has been a complete disaster in all of his road starts this season compiling a 15.09 ERA and .439 opponent on-base average.

And while trusting the Rangers to hit anything is always dicey, they should get Wyatt Langford and Jake Burger back today, which will help against Mitch Keller. It’s been a rough season for Keller, especially in the win-loss department, and he’s had plenty of struggles at home. So if the bad versions of these pitchers show up in today’s weather conditions, I think this total will be very reachable.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Merrill Kelly Alt Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+145; Odds via DraftKings): 8:10 PM CT on COLR

Kelly should go well over his real number of 5.5 strikeouts in this game, but I’m not laying the heavy juice for that prop. He should also go well over this alt number to be honest, as he’s been in excellent form and is facing a Rockies team that provides free AC regularly. Kelly has cashed the over on his strikeout prop in 8 straight starts, with 5 of those going over this alt number. That includes 11 K’s against the Rockies a month ago, who fan at just about everything with the second-highest K-rate against righties in baseball. Don’t be surprised to see another dominant start from Kelly here who has always had excellent numbers against Colorado.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) LA Sparks @ Minnesota Lynx -10 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on NBA TV

I’m paying close attention to the status of Napheesa Collier for this game, and you should too. MV-Phee is a game-time decision tonight, and having her in the lineup is crucial for the Lynx so I would not be laying this number if she’s out. Collier dropped 23 in Minnesota’s 14-point win in LA, and another 32 in their 23-point runaway when the Sparks were in town last Saturday, so her presence is obviously important in this matchup. There seem to be good signs on her status in the market as this spread is slowly creeping up, suggesting she’ll be good to go, and with her I would expect another double-digit Lynx win tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-16 (-0.28 Units) – Recommend: Fade

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.