Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 06/18

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Tarik Skubal Under 0.5 Earned Runs (+150; Odds via DraftKings): 5:40 PM CT on SportsNet PT

This is a wild number, and a wild price, but I’m in. Skubal is solidifying the AL Cy Young with every start, and has been borderline unhittable the past month in allowing just one run over his past four starts combined. That run came against the extremely dangerous Cubs lineup, but the Pirates lineup is far less of a threat.

Pittsburgh is awful against lefties like Skubal, ranking bottom-3 in the league for scoring, batting average, OPS, wOBA, weighted runs created, strikeout rate, and the list goes on, you get the point. Skubal has six outings this season where he did not allow a run, so this kind of price against one of the worst offenses he’ll see all season is worth taking.

MLB (0.5 Unit) KC Royals/Texas Rangers First 5 Innings Under 4 (+100; Odds via BetMGM): 7:05 PM CT on RSN

Texas is simply where scoring goes to die. Rangers home games are now a league-leading 28-9 to the under, and that 75.7% clip is not something you see often. Another should be coming here, but I only want the first five innings to avoid any potential bullpen issues and extra-inning madness. It definitely helps that both the Rangers and Royals are really struggling at the plate, and there are two semi-decent pitchers starting for both clubs.

Kris Bubic is in a great bounce back spot after a poor outing last week ended a stretch of only allowing 3 total runs in 39 innings of work, and faces a Texas team that is bottom-5 in most offensive metrics against lefties. The Royals aren’t much better against lefties, certainly from a pure runs standpoint as they rank 29th in scoring and weighted runs created, so a rejuvenated Patrick Corbin should be able to shut them down early as well. Two bad offenses in their worse split in this ballpark should be a custom-made under, so look for a slow start here.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Mark Canha Alt Over 1.5 Total Bases (+175; Odds via DraftKings)

I’ll put in a slight hedge against the F5 under with this, but there’s no reason we can’t cash both. Canha, like much of the Royals offense, is having a tough time getting anything going. But an opportunity against Corbin is a good spot to buy low, as he has a lot of experience against the Ranger starter, racking up a .448 average and 1.070 OPS in 29 at-bats.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Luis Severino Over 3.5 Earned Runs (+120; Odds via DraftKings): 9:05 PM CT on SCHN

I said it last week and I’ll say it again: I want teams of scientists studying Severino’s home/road splits. He paid off with a dazzling performance in KC, pitching into the eighth inning and only allowing one run, which I had hoped would help hold down his prop numbers today. No such luck with a big 3.5 posted here, but this is a spot where I have to jump in, especially with the juicy return.

Severino has gone over this number in six of his nine home starts, resulting in that ridiculous 7.10 ERA at the minor league park. Hitting conditions are excellent for tonight with hot temps and the wind blowing out, which is a nightmare for Severino as a fly-ball pitcher against a locked in Houston lineup. This is the perfect test of those home/road numbers for Severino as he held the Astros to one earned run in Houston last month, but I’m confident in the numbers and zigzag theory here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 19-17 (+0.78 Units) – Recommend: Tail

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.