Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 06/16

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) OKC Thunder First Half Team Total Over 57.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ABC

My gut says that the Thunder have their foot on Indiana’s neck now after a pretty shocking fourth quarter in the last game. The Pacers have not lost consecutive games in this postseason though, so they could re-shock the world tonight, but this is one trend that I see continuing. OKC, as the league’s highest-scoring first half team this season, has averaged 58.3 first half points in this series. With momentum on their side after Game 4, plus what’s guaranteed to be an insane home crowd, the Thunder should have a strong start tonight from a scoring standpoint.

Bonus Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings):

0.5 Unit – Jalen Williams Over 22.5 Points (-110)

0.5 Unit – Pascal Siakam Over 19.5 Points (-110)

0.25 Unit – Alex Caruso Over 1.5 Made Three’s (-110)

0.25 Unit – Alex Caruso Over 10.5 Points (-110)

0.25 Unit – Obi Toppin Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+115)

0.25 Unit – Ben Sheppard Over 0.5 Made Three’s (-110)

0.25 Unit – Bennedict Mathurin Alt Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+290)

MLB (0.75 Unit) Philadelphia Philles Team Total Over 4.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on NBCS-PH

Am I swayed at all by Sandy Alcantara’s last two outings where he’s looked much better than his season-long stats would imply? Those games came against the Rockies and Pirates, so no, I am not. The Phillies should give him all kinds of trouble tonight, as they did in the other game against him this season when they knocked him around for 6 runs in just 2 innings.

It’s true, Philadelphia had Bryce Harper in that game, but they’ve done a good job of compensating for his absence and still have plenty of firepower to take advantage of a struggling pitcher. And don’t forget that behind Alcantara is a Marlins bullpen that has allowed the third-most runs and hits in MLB this season, so the Phils should have plenty of opportunities to get over this team total tonight.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:40 PM CT on NESN

This could be a trap number, as there’s no telling if Gilbert will be on a pitch or innings limit tonight in his first start off the 15-day injured list. But it’s coming in below what he’s done in every full start this season, and against a team that should be easy to reach it against. The Red Sox are in the news for the Devers trade, which weakens their lineup, and they’ve never been great against righties like Gilbert in the first place with the third-highest strikeout rate in baseball. If Gilbert gets a decent amount of work in tonight, he should be able to clear this total like he usually does.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Houston Astros -1.5 @ Athletics (+100; Odds via Caesars): 9:05 PM CT on SCHN

This is a good price on the red hot Astros, who catch the Athletics in a difficult situational spot. It’s a fairly solid Malinsky Special spot for the A’s, who played yesterday and then crossed two time zones to get home. That’s tough in general, but a hot Houston squad coming to town, with an excellent pitcher on the mound, makes it even more difficult.

The Astros have won 15 of their last 20 games, with 9 of those wins by multiple runs, and I like that they’re getting all 9 at-bats here in a hitter-friendly park. Like most A’s starters, Mitch Spence is much worse at home and should have trouble against a locked in Astros lineup. And the A’s will have to face Lance McCullers, who is yet to allow an earned run on the road, so I like the chances of him holding the bats down enough for the Houston offense to jump on a bad pitching staff.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100; Odds via DraftKings)

I have to put in a slight hedge against the Astros run line, but this can easily cash right along with a Houston cover. The AL rookie of the year contender just continues to rake, and being at home where he has a .400 average and 1.012 OPS definitely helps. He’s also seen McCullers a few times already in his young career, recording a double and home run in three at-bats, so a couple of bases tonight shouldn’t be much of an issue.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-16 (-0.92 Units) – Recommend: Tail

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.