Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 06/08

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Indiana Pacers @ OKC Thunder -4.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:00 PM CT on ABC

The Thunder seem unbothered by the late collapse and last-second loss in Game 1, probably because they’ve been here before. In these playoffs no less, as it was a last-second shot that gave Denver a 1-0 lead in that series. But what happened in the next game was a full-on dismantling of the Nuggets, and it started early just like I think it will tonight. This number is actually below the home average for OKC who is the league’s best first quarter team, and I expect them to shake off the loss and make an early statement.

Bonus Bet (1 Unit) Indiana Pacers @ OKC Thunder -7.5 First Half (-110; Odds via BetMGM)

Ditto everything I said above and apply it to the first half, as the Thunder are also the league’s best first half team with a plus-9.5 average margin. Let’s not forget that the Thunder led by 9 after the first quarter and 12 at halftime in Game 1, they just fell victim to the Indiana voodoo. OKC also missed 31 of 54 shots in the paint, saw Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams go 8-for-28, and still held large early leads so they should be able to replicate that tonight with an even greater sense of urgency.

Bonus Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

1 Unit – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 34.5 Points (-110)

0.5 Unit – Obi Toppin Over 10.5 Points (-110)

0.5 Unit – Obi Toppin Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+130)

0.5 Unit – Pascal Siakam Over 29.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Lynx Team Total Over 89.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on KFAA

The Lynx should be able to name their score here against arguably the worst defense in the league. Dallas has only slightly improved from last season’s mark of allowing the most points in the WNBA, giving up 88.9 so far this season. The past 5 games for them have been particularly troubling, as they’ve allowed 90.8 while facing very weak offenses from Connecticut and Chicago three times.

The Lynx are statistically second to only the Liberty offensively, and have always been able to run it up on Dallas when they want to. They should want to here in a Commissioner’s Cup game where they’ve so far understood the assignment of padding their margin of victory, so I think they get into the 90’s pretty easily today.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-9 (+3.62 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.