Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 06/06

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks/Cincinnati Reds Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on Apple TV+

Putting two struggling pitchers in this small ballpark should be a recipe for runs. They don’t call it Great American Smallpark for nothing, even though it’s been outdone this season by the minor league parks being used by the A’s and Rays. Cincinnati starter Nick Lodolo is no stranger to the dangers there, as he has a 6.15 ERA and .300 on-base average allowed at home compared to 1.25 and .195 marks on the road.

So the Diamondbacks should be able to get to Lodolo easily here, as they’re a solid team against lefties and have found themselves at the plate recently. And they’ll need all the run support they can get to Eduardo Rodriguez, who returns from the IL tonight. Rodriguez was a gas can before the IL stint, and 7 of his 9 starts this season have gone over this total. The Reds aren’t great against lefties, but these teams have plenty of great bats to take advantage of poor pitching in a small park, so I like the over here.

MLB (0.5 Unit) St Louis Cardinals Team Total Over 4.5 (+120; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on SportsNet LA

I just have to fade Dodger pitching until they get healthy, especially when they’re giving starts to Justin Wrobleski. The LA lefty was wrecked in his lone road start this season at Washington, who’s not known for their ability to hit lefties, so that’s a good indication that his road struggles from last season are going to continue. While you’d rather have the Cardinal bats facing a righty, they’re more than serviceable against lefties, have been red hot overall, and just pasted excellent Kansas City pitching for 18 runs in 3 games. Add in a Dodgers bullpen that is anything but reliable, and the Cards should be able to keep the bats hot today.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Antonio Senzatela Over 3.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:40 PM CT on SNY

So the Rockies won a series, sweeping the pitiful Marlins, good for you. Back to reality tonight as they return home to face the Mets, and things should normalize for this team that’s still on track to be the worst of all time. It doesn’t help to have Senzatela starting, who has gone over this earned runs prop in his last 7 starts, and 9 of 12 on the year. The most he’s allowed in this stretch happened to come against this Mets team in New York, and their lineup has historically owned him with a cumulative .364 average and 1.080 OPS. With Juan Soto finally heating up, the Mets bats should keep rolling and jump on Senzatela again.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 17-13 (+3.17 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.