Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 06/05

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Indiana Pacers +9.5 @ OKC Thunder (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ABC

I’m probably in the minority on this opinion, but I think the Pacers can hang in this series. It’ll be a high-volatility series with how Indiana plans to shoot a ton of three’s and play fast, so that could create some wild results. But the Pacers have been the wild result in Game 1 of every round, as they’ve shocked the home team and won outright. This could also be a rust versus rest situation for the Thunder, who could come out flat tonight and let Indiana keep it within single digits.

Bonus Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

The Pacers have not been shy about their game plan to go bombs away from deep. Given OKC’s vulnerability on corner three’s all season, I think several names could benefit throughout the series. I’ll go to the alt market though since there’s so much juice to lay for each to splash just one from deep.

0.25 Unit – Obi Toppin Alt Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+200)

0.25 Unit – Bennedict Mathurin Alt Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+290)

0.25 Unit – Ben Sheppard Alt Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+325)

MLB (0.5 Unit) Ernie Clement Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130; Odds via DraftKings): 2:07 PM CT on SNET

I’m always going to be looking at Clement for base props with a juicy return like this whenever he faces a lefty. It’s no ordinary lefty today as Jesus Luzardo visits Toronto, but his blowup outing against Milwaukee could be signs of trouble, and he hasn’t exactly been invincible against righthanded bats. Clement is simply a problem for lefties, batting .364 with a 1.074 OPS against them, and I think this price is ridiculously generous.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Michael Busch Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115; Odds via DraftKings): 5:45 PM CT on Marquee

Busch flies well under the radar thanks to so many other good contributors on this Cubs offense. But put him in an advantageous position like he has tonight, with a good price attached, and he typically delivers. Busch is crushing righthanded pitching like he’ll see tonight, and he should have some extra insight into Nats starter Jake Irvin. They’re both the same age and from the Minneapolis suburbs, and I sense that Busch has always gotten the better of Irvin, as in the big leagues he’s gone 3-for-5 with a home run and two doubles. You really can’t pitch around anyone in this Cubs lineup, so Busch should get his chance and cash in this juicy return tonight.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) NY Liberty -12.5 @ Washington Mystics (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:30 PM CT on Prime Video

The Liberty do not appear to be messing around in the Commissioner’s Cup this season. They boat raced Connecticut in their first Cup game by 48 points, so they’re fully appreciating the margin of victory potential tie-breaker. That came on the heels of them running out this Mystics team by 22 on a back-to-back with travel spot, so this squad is rolling right now. Washington just hasn’t had the same three-point success lately as earlier in the season, and that can get you buried quickly against this Liberty squad. I fully believe teams like New York and Minnesota are trying to hand out beatdowns in this event, so I think the Liberty roll again.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 15-10 (+3.02 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.