Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 06/04

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Twins/Athletics Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:05 PM CT on MNNT

This total is on the rise market wide, and with good reason. The Twins have cleared it themselves the past two nights, knocking around this Athletics pitching staff that is finally getting the regression that was due after a strong early season. I think that continues against Jeffrey Springs, as even though he puts Minnesota in their weaker hitting split against lefties, he has really struggled at the minor league park with a 5.88 ERA.

Springs has seen his home starts go 4-1 over this total as Sacramento has continued to be the best park for overs this season, and another warm night with the wind blowing out should help that continue. So should Twins starter Zebby Matthews, who is yet to get on track in his starts this season, especially on the road. It might not take much of a contribution from the A’s tonight the way Minnesota is hitting, but a few given up by Matthews should help send this well over the total again.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120; Odds via DraftKings): 6:35 PM CT on RSN

Aranda is no longer leading the league in batting average, having slipped to 7th in all of MLB. But that’s still pretty impressive and makes me wonder why there would be such generous plus juice on this prop against a bad pitcher. Aranda will face Kumar Rocker who gets the start for Texas, and he’s had nothing but disastrous road starts that have added up to a 15.75 ERA and .463 on-base average allowed.

Rocker is also getting crushed by lefthanded bats like Aranda to the tune of a .432 average and 1.117 OPS allowed. Aranda has been hot the past couple of weeks, has 19 bases in his past 10 home games, and is much better against righties and at home, so he should pad those impressive stats tonight.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105; Odds via DraftKings): 9:10 PM CT on MLB Network

I’m not going to repeat all the eye-popping stats Freeman has at home and against righthanded pitching. Go back and read yesterday's article again, which he paid off with ease in his first at-bat. Although he doesn’t have the same success against Griffin Canning, just 1-for-6 lifetime, that one hit was a home run and he’s just too locked in right now, so I’m riding this as long as there’s plus juice attached.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 17-9 (+5.17 Units) – Recommend: Tail

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.